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Zito vs. Wolf – Dodgers at Giants from the Bay

April 27, 2009

Streaks Snapped – Dodgers, Giants, Look To Get Back In Win Column

The Los Angeles Dodgers (13-6 SU, 12-7 RL, 10-7-2 O/U) and San Francisco Giants (8-9 SU, 9-7 RL, 7-7-2 O/U) will both be gunning for an SU and RL victory in the BetOnline Sportsbook when the division rivals square off at AT&T Park tonight at 10 PM ET.

The Dodgers had their three-game winning streak snapped in its 10-4 loss to Colorado as a +100 underdog on Sunday while the Giants had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 5-4 loss to Arizona as a +100 underdog in extra innings.

Tonight the Dodgers will hand the ball to veteran left-hander Randy Wolf (1-1, 4.26 ERA) while the Giants counter with southpaw Barry Zito (0-2, 5.63 ERA).

Wolf gave up four runs in seven innings in his last start, a 6-5 loss at Houston on Wednesday while Zito held San Diego scoreless for seven innings of San Francisco’s 1-0, 10-inning victory Wednesday.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and MLB Free Pick.

  • The Dodgers are 4-0 in Wolf’s last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.
  • The Dodgers are 6-1 in Wolf’s last 7 starts as a favorite.
  • The Giants are 5-0 in Zito’s last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
  • The Giants are 7-1 in Zito’s last 8 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • The Under is 5-1-2 in Zito’s last 8 starts vs. Dodgers.
  • The Dodgers are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
  • The Dodgers are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in San Francisco.

MLB Odds:

  • Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ +120
  • Randy Wolf –L -135
  • San Francisco Giants +1½ -140
  • Barry Zito –L +115
  • Over 8½ -125
  • Under 8½ +105

Analysis: I like the Under first and foremost in this contest, followed by the Dodgers to win and cover the Run Line with their superior lineup.

While I expect Barry Zito to have another strong outing following his masterpiece in his last start, I like Randy Wolf to match Zito pitch-for-pitch until L.A. pounds the Giants’ bullpen late.

The Dodgers have already gone 3-0 against the Giants this season, winning their three-game series from April 13-16, with two routs thrown in for good measure.

MLB Free Picks: Under 8½ Total Runs/Dodgers -1½ Runs

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