Western Conference Playoff Race – Denver vs. Dallas

The Denver Nuggets take on the Dallas Mavericks with play off positioning at stake. In fact every game that Denver and Dallas plays against New Orleans, Houston, Utah, Portland and San Antonio will have playoff seeding implications. That’s how tight the Western Conference is after the Los Angeles Lakers. Denver just beat New Orleans on the road in their last game to take their record to 46 and 26. Their against the spread record overall is 38-33-1. Their ATS record on the road is 19 and 18.

The Mavericks are 43 and 28 straight up. They’ve won two games in a row straight up and against the spread versus Golden State and Indiana. Overall, the Maverick’s against the spread record is 35 and 36. They are 15 and 19 ATS at home.

Here is the BetOnline online sportsbook betting line for this game.

Denver Nuggets +4 ½ -110 +165 O 208 -110

Dallas Mavericks -4 ½ -110 -200 U 208 -110

Here are a few online wagering trends for this game.

The Denver Nuggets are 4 and 1 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.

The Under is 7 and 0 in the Denver Nuggets last 7 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.

The Dallas Mavericks are 4 and 1 against the spread in their last 5 games at home.

The Denver Nuggets are 6 and 1 against the spread in the last 7 meetings between these two teams.

Nene is out in tonight’s game which is one of the reasons why Dallas is a 4 ½ point favorite ATS instead of a 2 ½ to 3 ½ point favorite. Of course, Nene being out might not have a huge impact since he isn’t the guy what will be defending Dirk Nowitzki.

That would be Kenyon Martin who defends Nowitzki as good as any player in the league which is one of the reasons why the Nuggets are 6 and 1 ATS in the last 7 games between these two teams.

Dallas isn’t at full strength but they’ve been okay with Jason Terry and Jason Kidd helping Nowitzki in the scoring department, but facing the Nuggets, who are one of the better defensive teams in the NBA, is going to be difficult.

But why waste time trying to find the winner ATS? The truth is that the BetOnline Total in this game is set way over what it should be. The last time these two teams played neither team got above 100 points with Denver scoring 99 and Dallas scoring 97. With both teams hurting, Nene is out for the Nuggets and Josh Howard is out for the Mavs, why do odds makers believe that a total of 208 is justified?

I just don’t see it happening. If anything, I see Denver scoring in the low 90’s to high 80’s. I see the Mavs doing the same.

I’m betting that this game goes under the BetOnline Total of 208 points.