Western Conference Championship Preview – Lakers at Spurs

For those of you that are so ready to throw the Spurs under the Lakers bus, you have to remember two things about the Spurs. This is a team that is undaunted by hype, thanks to the magnificent coaching of Greg Popovich. Secondly, they still don’t have Manu Ginobli back in the lineup. Does that make them a horrible pick tonight?

Los Angeles Lakers (51-13) vs San Antonio Spurs (43-20)
Thursday, March 12th — AT&T Center, San Antonio — 8:00pm EST

NBA Betting Line: San Antonio -2.5 (194)

Not necessarily. First of all, this game is in San Antonio, a city that has not favored the Lakers in the past. Secondly, the Lakers are playing their second game in a back-to-back after demolishing the Houston Rockets thanks to Ron Artest’s big, fat mouth. Whenever the line looks harrowingly close, as it does in this matchup, you have to question the oddsmakers’ desires to bait you.

The Spurs and Lakers have clashed in two pivotal matchups this season. In the first meeting, Tim Duncan and the Spurs tripped up a Lakers team that overlooked them, and then dispatched of them in a nail biter 112-111. In the second game, Kobe wouldn’t stand for it, putting up 22 points in a 99-85 demolishing of their heated rivals.

NBA Betting Trends:

• LA Lakers are 15-5 SU in their last 20 games on the road
• LA Lakers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against San Antonio
• LA Lakers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games in San Antonio
• San Antonio is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
• San Antonio is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games at home
• San Antonio is 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games against the Lakers
• the total has gone UNDER in 9 of 11 when Lakers play in San Antonio

While the UNDER is virtually a sure thing in this game, it’s the spread laid out by the oddsmakers that remains confusing. The Lakers have almost always covered against San Antonio recently, and somehow the oddsmakers believe that the Spurs can be near a 3-point favorite at home. Do they really believe in San Antonio that much? More importantly – should you?

The Spurs have three straight victories over Charlotte, Phoenix and Washington but struggled against Dallas on the road. Before that they were able to demolish the Clippers 106-78. That doesn’t really say much about the Spurs in the last five games, aside from their inability to play in Dallas.

The x-factor for the NBA this season has undoubtedly been Tony Parker, whose penchant for emerging in big games is becoming a feared asset of the Spurs. While Pau Gasol will have his hands full with Tim Duncan, it will be up to Kobe and the back court to stop Tony Parker. At home Parker leads the Spurs with 21.6 points per game and 6.5 assists. From his floater, to his stunning points-in-the-paint totals, Parker is a factor that many NBA bettors don’t consider when the Spurs take to the floor.

I’ve been backing the Spurs this entire season since they stumped the Lakers back in January. Without Manu they’re a questionable threat. With Manu back in a couple weeks, they’ll be virtually unstoppable. Look for the Spurs, peaking at the right time, to be a force in NBA betting and to my favorite to win the West in our NBA futures.

NBA Free Pick: San Antonio -2.5 (UNDER)