Week 5 Lines on College Football Give #18 Iowa Lots of Credit

The Week 5 lines on college football give the Iowa Hawkeyes a ton of respect and their opponent, Penn State, absolutely no respect.

The two Top 25 ranked Big Ten teams are coming off of solid victories against lesser opponents.  Now, they have to get a jump on their Big Ten rivals by winning their first Big Ten Conference matchup of the season.

For Iowa, it’s all about concentrating on a conference title after Arizona dashed their hopes of a BCS National Championship bid two weeks ago.  For Penn State, it’s all about being competitive against a team that should flat out beat them like a drum.

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What?  Iowa is better than Penn State?  Yes.  That’s why the Hawkeyes should cover the lines on college football spread in this game.

#20 Penn State Nittany Lions vs. #18 Iowa Hawkeyes

Where:  Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, Iowa
When:  October 2nd, 2010 at 8:05 pm EST
TV:  ESPN/ESPN3.com

NCAAF Betting Lines

Penn State Nittany Lions                                -7 -110

Iowa Hawkeyes                                              +7 -110

The lines on college football trends say that Iowa easily covers the spread in this game.

• The Iowa Hawkeyes are 6 and 1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 3 ½ to 10 points.
• The Iowa Hawkeyes are 5 and 1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these two teams.
• The Penn State Nittany Lions are 1 and 4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 3 ½ to 10 points.
• The Penn State Nittany Lions are 2 and 7 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog.

Here’s the thing, the lines on college football for this game should favor the Hawkeyes by at least 8 ½ to 10 points.  Iowa owns Penn State.  The Hawkeyes beat Penn State 21 to 10 in 2009 when Penn State had a senior QB under center.

This year, Penn State starts a freshman QB.  What is that Iowa front 4, the best in college football, going to do to the freshman?  They’re going to beat him up.  Robert Bolden will be a good QB for the Nittany Lions but this year it’s all about learning as much as he can.

Since Bolden doesn’t have the ability to throw the ball successfully against a tough Iowa secondary, the Nittany Lions are going to have to give the ball to RB Evan Royster.  Iowa will then shut down Penn State’s running game and hold the Nittany Lions to 10 points or less like they did last season.

Penn State’s D is pretty good.  It’s allowed only 13 points in the last 2 games but those games were against Temple and Kent State.  Go back to the Nittany Lions’ 24 to 3 loss versus Alabama and it’s obvious that this team is probably overrated in both the AP Poll, where they are ranked 22nd, and the Coach’s Poll, where they are ranked 20th.

Iowa’s offense is much better than some football handicappers might realize.  They stubbed their toe against Arizona in the 34 to 27 loss, no doubt, but even against the ‘Cats the Iowa offense was sharp in spots.  They’ve been much better outside of Tucson.  In fact, if we throw out the Arizona game, the Hawkeyes have outscored their opponents 162 to 14.  They haven’t played against great teams but the scoring differential is still a great indication that Iowa is solid on both offense and defense. 

The bottom line, of course, is that Iowa owns Penn State.  The Hawkeyes have beaten the Nittany Lions in 7 out of 8 games since 2000.  That, and the fact that the Hawkeyes’ D gets to feast on a freshman QB makes this the bet of the weekend in my opinion.

Iowa should roll against the Penn State Nittany Lions and easily cover the lines on college football in the sportsbook for this game.

NCAAF Betting Pick:  Iowa Hawkeyes -7 -110

The Week 5 lines on college football are up in the sportsbook!

Sources:  espn.com, usatoday.com, covers.com