Week 3 College Football Free Picks

There was good and bad last week, as I went an even 2 and 2.  Stanford blew out what ended up being a -20 ½ point spread versus Duke in a big 30 point, 44 to 14 victory.  Oregon smashed over the 64 point total on their own in scoring 69 against the Nevada Wolf Pack.

Then, there was the bad.  North Carolina State lost by 7 to Wake Forest as +1 ½ dogs and…Notre Dame.  I was looking downright healthy with my under 55 wager in the ND vs. Michigan game until the Golden Domers and the “Denards” racked up 35 points in the fourth quarter.  The Wolverines took down the Domers 35 to 31 in what is surely this year’s wackiest game to date.

On to Week 3 in college football with four more top wagers!

#4 Boise State at Toledo

When:  Sept. 16 at 8:00 pm EST

Betting Line:  Boise State -19 ½, Total 58 ½   

Analysis:  This is a Friday game that pits one of the best teams in college football, Boise State, against a tough squad coming off of an almost-victory over a major program on the road. Toledo almost beat Ohio State last Saturday but ended up falling 22 to 27. It was a valiant effort but it’s also one of the reasons that the Rockets are only 19 ½ point dogs to the Broncos on Sept. 16th.  Boise State throttled Toledo 57 to 14 last season. The Broncos’ D is very good, better than it showed against Georgia in Boise’s first game, and could keep Toledo to under 20 in this one. On offense, Boise State’s Kellen Moore is one of the best in the nation. Boise State had an extra week to prepare and the Ohio State loss has to be a disappointment to the Rockets. The Broncos will roll. 

Pick:  Boise State

#15 Michigan State at Notre Dame

When:  Sept. 17 at 3:30 pm EST

Betting Line:  Notre Dame -4 ½, Total 51

Analysis:  So, Notre Dame implodes in two games in a row but because they’re the Golden Domers, Vegas institutes ND as a 4 ½ point favorite over a superior team? Sure, Sparty has played only Youngstown State and Florida Atlantic this season, but the MSU D has given up a total of 151 total yards. Not only that, but the trends favor State in the head-to-head as well: 7 and 0 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these two at Notre Dame, 10 and 4 ATS versus the Domers in the last 14 meetings and, get this, the road team is 9 and 1 ATS in the last 10 meetings overall. Yes, Notre Dame is a decent team, but coach Brian Kelly might have a motivation issue. I just think the Irish is like the Tin Man right now, looking for their heart, and I don’t see them finding it against Michigan State on Saturday.

Pick:  Michigan State

#1 Oklahoma at #5 Florida State

When:  Sept. 17 at 8:00 pm EST

Betting Line:  Oklahoma -3, Total 54 ½  

Analysis:  I’m not sure why Florida State is ranked #5 in the nation. To me, the Seminoles are a very good team, but not a great team.  For starters, beating Louisiana-Monroe 34 to 0 and Charleston-Southern 62 to 10 just doesn’t do a whole lot for me. Oklahoma destroyed Tulsa 47 to 14 in their first game of the season, got an extra week to prepare for the Seminoles, and have the only man who can take away Stanford’s Andrew Luck’s Heisman Trophy playing for them, QB Landry Jones. Florida State’s QB, E.J. Manuel, is decent, but he isn’t Landry Jones. The best team in the nation is giving up only 3 points with one of the top two signal callers under center and a defense that might be as good as any in the nation? So yeah…I’m all over it. Oh, yes, one more piece of nugget to chew on, the Sooners manhandled Florida State 47 to 17 in last season’s contest. Jones went 30 out of 40 for 380 yards, 4 TD’s, and no picks. Sooners all the way.

Pick:  Oklahoma

#6 Stanford at Arizona

When:  Sept. 17 at 10:45 pm EST

Betting Line:  Stanford -9 ½, Total 54

Analysis:  I’m an Arizona alum, but also a realist. I don’t see how the Wildcats keep this one close. Arizona is an okay team, but they showed in their 37 to 14 loss last week against Oklahoma State that their D isn’t exactly a lock down unit. Stanford’s offense scores points at will with Luck throwing the pigskin. Not only that, but RB Stepfan Taylor is a solid runner. The Stanford D gives up an average of only 28.5 yards on the ground per game. Take away Arizona’s run and all of a sudden Bear Down QB Nick Foles, who’s already injured, could push things. The Cardinal is 4 and 1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in AZ and 6 and 2 ATS in the last 8 meetings overall. Stanford takes down my former school nasty-like on Saturday night!

Pick:  Stanford