Week 2 NCAAF Odds & Picks – Florida Hosts Kentucky

Head coach Joker Phillips has an awesome first name, and his Kentucky Wildcats have thundered to a perfect record as we march in to Week 4’s NCAAF odds. However, a 23-game losing streak against the Florida Gators awaits them in Gainesville this weekend and things could quickly unravel for both Joker and the Wildcats. Still, I’m not fully confident in Florida’s offense.

Kentucky has not only gone undefeated against non-conference opponents thus far, they’re also 3-0 ATS and have cleared spread of -24.0 against Akron and -24.5 against Western Kentucky.

A big reason is the rise of quarterback Matt Hartline, who has thrown for 680-yards and 5 touchdowns this season and is coming off a win over Akron where he tallied 250 passing yards on 72.4 percent of his attempts, while also scoring 2 passing touchdowns. He’s been a big booster for the Kentucky betting backers, but his hopes of carrying that momentum past the Week 4 NCAAF odds appear slim.

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Which doesn’t mean they’re dead, but history has bee a cruel mistress when Kentucky visits Florida.

While Kentucky has beat up on some bad teams to rank 11th in scoring offense, Florida’s defense has been unreal. The Gators have given up just 14.3 points per game, ranking them 16th in the nation. It should also make Hartline and Kentucky nervous that Florida Gators has allowed just 147.0 passing yards per game thus far when playing at home.

Kentucky Wildcats (3-0) vs. No.9 Florida Gators

Saturday, September 25th — Griffin Stadium — 7:00pm EST

Week 4 NCAAF Odds: Florida -14 (48.5)

Countering Hartline will be quarterback John Brantley who is doing his best to fill in for Tim Tebow. The problem is that Florida is that Brantley is a true quarterback, not the physical phenom that Tebow was at the college level. And Brantley is being unfairly compared. He’s a true pocket passer, and has posted just 452 yards and 5 touchdowns while the rushing game has done their best to bail him out.

Miscues have been the biggest issue for the Gators as Brantley, the offensive line and Urban Meyer all try to absorb the adjustment of Tebow’s departure. Does that put a dent in Florida’s chances of covering the Week 4 NCAAF odds?

Kind of, but not really. Listen, Hartline is growing in to his own but Florida isn’t just about quarterbacking. They’ve been an SEC mainstay because of a hard nosed defense. That being said I think that nerves will rattle Brantley as he takes to the field in an SEC matchup against a Kentucky offense that will be relentless through the air.

All that being said, I don’t see Kentucky Wildcats getting out of The Swamp with a win, but I do see them covering this spread. The number on Florida is simply too big when Kentucky has been putting up 44.3 points per game and has a solid pass defense. Brantley will continue to struggle and force Florida to lean on their rushing game.

So if and when this becomes a matchup of Hartline’s arm versus Florida’s ability to pound the rock, you’re in for a close game. Which means that Kentucky is the sneaky upstart bet on the Week 4 NCAAF odds, as long as the number stays high on Florida.

Furious Week 4 NCAAF Odds Buster: Kentucky -14 (UNDER)

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