USC Expected to Spank ASU as NCAAF Odds Favorite

The USC Trojans are expected to hand the ASU Sun Devils their 5th loss of the season according to the NCAAF odds makers.

USC, coming off of a horrible 32 to 53 loss at the hands of the Oregon Ducks, are 5 ½ point favorites to take down the Sun Devils at the Coliseum on Nov. 6th.  The Trojans have won only once out of their last 5 games and no doubt will be looking to take some of their frustrations out against an ASU team that gave Oregon it’s only real test (well…sort of!) in 2010. 

Will the Trojans punish the Sun Devils this Saturday?  Or will ASU twist the knife that’s in USC’s back?

Arizona State Sun Devils vs. USC Trojans

Where:  Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, California
When:  Nov. 6th, 2010 at 10:30 pm EST
TV: TBD

NCAAF Betting Lines

Arizona State Sun Devils                       +5 ½ -110       O 60 ½ -110   

USC Trojans                                        -5 ½ -110        U 60 ½ -110                           

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According the trends, the Sun Devils are the pick to cover versus the NCAAF odds.

• The Arizona State Sun Devils are 4 and 1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
• The Arizona State Sun Devils are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• The USC Trojans are 5 and 12 ATS in their last 17 conference games.
• The USC Trojans are 3 and 7 ATS in their last 10 home games.

USC has been both brilliant and ridiculously bad this season.  The NCAAF odds makers must believe that the brilliant Trojans are going to come up big on Saturday.

80% of my fellow football handicappers believe that the brilliant Trojans will show up as well versus ASU this Saturday.  Only 20% of football handicappers currently believe that ASU will cover the 5 ½ point spread in the sportsbook.  I’m actually 1 of those 20% handicappers.

To me, USC isn’t any better than ASU.  The Trojans’ D allows 28 points per game and although it was brilliant versus Cal, holding the Golden Bears to only 14 points in a smashing 48 to 14 victory as 2-point favorites, it was horrible versus Hawaii, Minnesota, Washington, Stanford and Oregon.

ASU is a much better team than their 4 and 4 record would indicate.  Cal blitzed ASU 50 to 17, that’s true, but the loss was an anomaly.  ASU’s D is decent.  It held Wisconsin to only 20 points in a 19 to 20 loss as 11 ½ point road dogs and kept Washington State off the board in a 42 to 0 victory.  It also kept the Washington Huskies from garnering more than 14 points in a 24 to 14 win.

The Sun Devils’ offense isn’t bad either.  It scores, on average, 32 points per game and racks up 432 yards per game. The Sun Devils’ biggest accomplishment to date this season, however, is how they stuck with the Oregon Ducks in a 31 to 42 loss.  The Sun Devils kept it up against the best team in college football.  That has to mean something, right?

Add all of these factors into the mix, USC’s suspect defense, ASU’s very good defense and decent offense, and the wagering trends, and it becomes obvious which team is the one to back to cover the NCAAF odds spread.

That team is the Arizona State Sun Devils who not only could cover the spread versus USC this Saturday but also has an outside shot of winning the game outright.    

NCAAF Betting Pick:  Arizona State Sun Devils +5 ½ -110

Get Week 10 NCAAF odds in the sportsbook!

Sources:  espn.com, covers.com