Trouble in Torero Country – Portland at San Diego

BetOnline NCAA Basketball Odds: SAN DIEGO -2.5

Here are some of the NCAA basketball sports betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* PORT has won nine of its last 11 games SU

* PORT has covered six of its last nine games

* PORT has played six of its last seven games OVER the total

* PORT has won and covered four of its last six road games

* SD has lost seven of its last nine games SU

* SD has played five of its last six games OVER the total

* SD has won five of its last seven home games SU

* SD is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five home games

* SD has played five of its last seven home games OVER the total

Also…

* SD has won seven of the last nine meetings SU

* Six of the last seven meetings have gone OVER the total

* SD has won six of the last seven meetings SU as the home team

* The last four meetings in San Diego have gone OVER the total

* PORT has had the rebounding edge in each of the last five meetings

* SD has made more three-pointers in four of the last five meetings

San Diego has lost three straight games. The last of those defeats, at Moraga against Saint Mary’s, was certainly a competitive one, but there is no excuse whatsoever for flops at Pepperdine (57-52) and Loyola Marymount (65-57) in those that preceded it. It goes without saying that we don’t consider Saturday’s 66-60 win over Pacific to be a "buy" sign. Make no mistake – this has become a total meltdown.

Trumaine Johnson, who had given this team an offensive boost for a time, was horrible for a two-game period shooting just 4-for-17, then was suspended by coach Bill Grier for "violation of team rules," then was told he won’t be back. He has since announced plans to transfer. Considering that Brandon Johnson is out for the year, this leaves a huge hole in the backcourt that can’t possibly be filled. At this point the Toreros, who won the conference title last season and beat U-Conn in the NCAA tournament, have at best, only feint hopes for an invitation to the lesser NIT or CBI, and for that to happen they’d have to finish strong.

San Diego hasn’t covered once in its last five home games, largely in part to a minus margin on the boards and more turnovers than assists. They also have very little options beyond the arc (hitting only five three-pointers per game).

Portland needs to just win this game and the next one over Santa Clara to earn itself a second seed in the WCC tournament, which brings with it a bye. That might also help their at-large chances, especially if Saint Mary’s stumbles and the NCAA committee wants to give two bids to the WCC. Since the conference season began, the Pilots have beaten all the teams they were supposed to, and added wins over Saint Mary’s and San Diego. Their only losses in the WCC have been a pair to Gonzaga and the return match with the Gaels.

If Trumaine Johnson is making trouble, of course he has to be disciplined. From a handicapping perspective, though, you have to look at this team differently when it is a non-explosive, slowdown team to begin with and has just lost a rare player who can put the ball in the basket. This is a slippery slope, and we’re not going down with it. We’ll take Portland, the 2.5-point underdog in the BetOnline NCAA basketball betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY: PORTLAND +2.5 ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

(Charles Jay makes his share of shots from downtown as a contributor to the BetOnline Locker Room)