Triple Crown Trail Starts in New York With Count Fleet Stakes

Padding Your Bankroll: Saturday January 2

Triple Crown Trail Starts in New York With Count Fleet Stakes

It is never too early to start looking for your Kentucky Derby horse, and we might find an early prospect or two this afternoon at Aqueduct, where a field of eight three year olds will go to the post in the $65,000 Count Fleet Stakes.

In 2004, Smarty Jones started his three-year-old campaign with a victory in the Count Fleet, and went on to win the Southwest Stakes, Rebel Stakes, and Arkansas Derby.

That made him the 4/1 favorite in the Kentucky Derby, and he did not disappoint, beating Lion Heart by 2 ¾ lengths.

The disappointment came after he won the Preakness Stakes, when his Triple Crown bid came up short in the Belmont Park stretch, when Birdstone ran by him in the final 70 yards to pull off the upset.

The 2005 Count Fleet winner was Scrappy T, who is best known for veering into Afleet Alex and jockey Jeremy Rose at the top of the stretch in the Preakness Stakes, nearly sending both horse and rider to the dirt.

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Rose and Afleet Alex miraculously managed to avoid falling and went on to win the Preakness and taking the Belmont Stakes.

Scrappy T went on to earn $645,919 in his career, but had a habit of landing for minor shares (17-3-7-2).

This favorite for this year’s race likely will be Ibboyee, who already has three stakes wins on his résumé, but the Todd Pletcher trainee has only faced New York breds in his five career starts.

I am looking for more value in this year’s running, and the Tony Dutrow trained Laus Deo, who is invading from his home base at Philadelphia Park might be ready to fire a career best this afternoon.

Aqueduct Race 8 Count Fleet Stakes (Post time 3:44 ET)

#1 Laus Deo   6/1
#2 Ibboyee   8/5
#4 Peppi Knows   5/1
#5 Turbo Speed   7/2

#1 Laus Deo has shown improvement in each of his three starts, breaking his maiden last out going seven furlongs at Philadelphia Park in a sharp victory. The third place finisher in the race was Bulletproof Spirit, who came back to graduate in his next start on Dec. 28. The colt has plenty of pedigree to handle two turns, by Medaglia d’Oro out of a Alysheba mare that has dropped two other foals to race including two-time route winner Belle’s Cat. The barn has been very live at the meeting and is 29% winners moving runners from sprint to route. Pino was aboard in the colt’s last two starts and the jock does not make the trip to New York, but the Maryland based jock does not travel much, so I would not read too much into that. The 6/1 morning line looks fair enough.

#2 Ibboyee has only faced New York breds but does have three stakes wins on his resume, and he won that trio of races by a combined 16 lengths. Last out over a wet track the colt stumbled out of the gate and made a good late rally to win the Damon Runyon in his first trip on the inner. The colt earned the top last out speed fig and looks like he will be tough to beat if he runs his race, but figures to be a short price, likely around 4/5. Note two of his wins were on wet tracks and there may be some moisture in the track today with rain and snow in the forecast.

#4 Peppi Knows was a good second last out in the Remsen Stakes (G2) in his first route try. The colt that beat him is the highly regarded Buddy’s Saint, who had won the Nashua Stakes (G2) in his first start against winners and earned a 101 Beyer in that victory. The gelding won the Finger Lakes Futurity by a neck two back in the slop going six furlongs. He is bred to love a wet track and has one of Penn National’s top trainers in his corner. If the track comes up wet and his price drifts up a notch or two, we might want to take a closer look at this guy.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 4/1 or better.
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,4,5
TRI: 1,2 / 1,2,4,5 / 1,2,4,5,8

Good luck padding your bankroll today!