There’s a Buzz Around First Dude – Horse Racing Picks

When racing bettors saw First Dude fly out to the early lead in the Preakness Stakes three weeks ago, may of them figured the 24-1 shot might set the pace then fade away, but instead he posted a second-place finish that has him surrounded by a lot of buzz. On Saturday, First Dude will go to the post in the Belmont Stakes, and his connections are hoping that he will have the same kind of "stuff" for this third jewel of the Triple Crown; enough, in fact, to beat out nemesis Fly Down. The Dale Romans-trained colt is listed as +350 in the Belmont Stakes betting odds, which makes him the second favorite behind Ice Box, who is +300.

Belmont Stakes
Saturday, June 5 – 6:32 PM ET
Belmont Park, Elmont, NY

Betting Odds to Win
(With post positions reflected)

1          Dave in Dixie                +2000
2          Spangled Star              +3000
3          Uptowncharlybrown    +1000
4          Make Music for Me       +900
5          Fly Down                      +450
6          Ice Box                         +300
7          Drosselmeyer               +1200
8          Game On Dude             +900
9          Stately Victor               +1400
10         Stay Put                       +2000
11         First Dude                    +350
12         Interactif                       +1200

It took three tries for First Dude to break his maiden, but it was really no shame; Chief Counsel, who beat him first time out, is not a bad horse (though he didn’t achieve very much since). Fly Down, who is one of the favorites in the Belmont (in fact, +450 in the betting odds) beat him by a half a length in his second race.

There has only been one victory for this horse, and that was a maiden special at Gulfstream on January 30. He was the betting favorite in that race, and generated an 83 Beyer Speed rating, which was a tremendous improvement on the 66 he had produced in his previous outing. In an allowance race at Gulfstream just a few weeks later, it was once again a confrontation with Fly Down, and again it was First Dude finishing second, this time by a head.

First Dude went right from that allowance race into three Grade I events. The Florida Derby did not work for him, as he failed to be very much of a factor. In the Blue Grass Stakes, he was never far from the lead, but never got there either, and faltered in the stretch as Stately Victor (+1400 in the Belmont betting odds) came home with the win.

This horse’s coming-out party, however, was in the Preakness, as he flew right out to the front after starting out of the #11 post, led the race all the way down the backstretch, lost the lead at the top of the final turn, still managed to battle back, and was barely beaten by Lookin At Lucky (only three-quarters of a length), producing a strong perfecta for bettors. The Beyer figure of 101 he established in that race is the highest any of Saturday’s Belmont contestants has ever recorded.

Here’s the interesting part – First Dude has drawn the #11 post AGAIN for the Belmont, and you’ve got to think he’ll make some move to be on the pace in this race that has an overabundance of closers, such as Ice Box, the monster who is the 3-1 betting favorite.

Obviously, First Dude has shown something on dirt tracks, getting in the money four out of five times, with almost $269,000 in winnings on that surface alone, which is more than seven of these Belmont horses have earned in their entire careers. Bettors should take note that there is a lot of distance in First Dude’s pedigree. For one thing, the grandsire is A.P. Indy, a Belmont winner, and the great-grandsire is Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew. There were plenty of distance runners on the dam side too, including Curlin, who won the 2007 Preakness and Breeders Cup Classic and came second in the Belmont.

Yes, that looks like a Belmont horse, but the question that has to be on the minds of many is whether that trip in the Preakness took to much out of him. That’s something many people will be betting on or against on Saturday.