The Year of the Cub – Cincinnati vs. Chicago

After an intense weekend set with the St. Louis Cardinals, the Chicago Cubs (7-4 +$140) will host the NL Central rival Cincinnati Reds (7-5 +$283) for a three-game MLB betting series at historic Wrigley Field. The Cubs currently sit tied atop the NL Central along with St. Louis while Cincinnati sits just a half game back. Manager Dusty Baker’s squad picked up a pair of come from behind victories at Houston over the weekend to win back-to-back series for the first time this season. Chicago split its first home series of the year with Colorado, and then took two of three from St. Louis before Sunday night’s ESPN telecast was washed away due to inclement weather. The Reds are 4-2 as a visitor this season and have reeled in upwards of $300 for MLB bettors, while Chicago is 3-2 in the “Friendly Confines” but have cost its betting backers $11 overall due to dropping game 2 of their series against Colorado as lofty -200 chalks.

Once again, Rich Harden and the Cubs have been installed outrageous -230 home favorites by BetOnline Sportsbook oddsmakers for this NL Central clash with the game ‘total’ set at 8 under -120. Chicago won its 15-game series with the Reds 8-7 a year ago (-$235), and came out on top six of the nine times it welcomed Cincinnati into Wrigley Field. The Cubs are 8-3 in Harden’s L/11 starts as a favorite, but they’ve dropped each of his L/4 overall starts.

If Rick Ankiel can do it, so can Micah Owings! This kid has got to get into the starting line-up on an everyday basis. He’s a pitcher with a .321 career batting average. That just isn’t right, so Cincy’s management needs to find a way to get this kid in the everyday line-up. While he’s an excellent hitter, where the righty falters is pitching. He got lit up for five hits and four earned runs in his season debut against Milwaukee last week. The loss increased his losing ledger to eight of 10 his L/10 starts. In just 1 1/3 lifetime innings vs. the Cubs, Owings has a 33.75 ERA with five runs allowed on two hits.

Rich Harden had a very “un-Harden-like” outing in his Wrigley debut last week against Colorado. He breezed through the Rockies first three batters on only 13 pitches, but then threw 14 pitches to Garrett Atkins when he lead off the second inning. When it was all said and done, Harden got touched-up for five hits and four earned runs while throwing 92 pitches through just three innings of work. He did strike out eight, but the four walks he surrendered proved very costly. He threw seven innings of shut-out ball in his lone appearance against the Reds last season, and boasts a 2-0 mark with a 2.92 career ERA against Cincinnati.

We got burned badly backing Harden on the run-line his last time out, so I feel a bit more confident about rolling with him and the Cubs this time around. Harden usually never posts back-to-back poor starts, and he’s going up against a gas can. Chicago’s offense is sure to tee off on what Owings will bring to the table. If not, they’ll have their hands full the remainder of this series (Cueto/Harang) and we’ll be there to fade. Not tonight though as Chicago should cruise against a reds squad that just picked up a nice series win at Houston.

Rose’s Recommendation: 3* Chicago (-1’) -105

(Rating Scale: 1* – 5*)