The Next MVP – Miami Heat at Boston Celtics

Reeling Celtics Need Win at Home Against Heat and MVP Candidate, D-Wade

The Miami Heat (36-30 SU, 30-34-2 ATS, 37-28-1 O/U) had their modest three-game winning streak snapped on Sunday, losing to the surging Philadelphia 76ers 85-77 as a 7.5-point road underdog in the BetOnline Sportsbook while the 162 combined points fell well Under the posted O/U total (196).

Veteran center Jermaine O’Neal led Miami with 20 points, while MVP candidate Dwyane Wade was held to just 18 points on 8-of-21 shooting in the loss.

The Boston Celtics (50-18 SU, 34-34 ATS, 32-35-1 O/U) lost their second consecutive game – and fourth in their last five games – by falling to the Chicago Bulls 127-121 on Tuesday night.

While all-star forward Paul Pierce scored a team-high 37 points the Celtics lost their fifth straight against the spread, failing to cover as 2-point road favorites while the game played over the 195.5-point O/U total.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and NBA Free Picks.

• The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami’s last 8 games when playing on the road against Boston
• The total has gone OVER in 7 of Miami’s last 9 games
• Miami is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami’s last 7 games on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Boston’s last 8 games when playing at home against Miami
• Boston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Miami
• Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami
• The total has gone OVER in 8 of Boston’s last 10 games at home

NBA Odds:

• Miami Heat +4½ -110
• Boston Celtics -4½ -110
• Over 191½ -110
• Under 191½ -110

Analysis: The Celtics let me down in a big way on Tuesday night but have gone a respectable 3-1 SU at home in their last four games, winning two straight in the new Garden. Meanwhile, the Heat have lost – and failed to cover – the spread in two straight road contests.

I’m coming back with the C’s tonight to win and cover despite being in a solid slump without defensive leader Kevin Garnett.
 
NBA Free Picks: Celtics -4½ Points/Under 191½ Total Points