The Battle of Michigan – Western Michigan at Michigan

Western Michigan Broncos (9-4 SU, 5-7 ATS in ’08) at Michigan Wolverines (3-9 SU, 2-10 ATS in ’08)

Saturday, September 5

College Football Betting Odds:
MICHIGAN -13, Total 56

Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• WMU has covered two of its last six games
• WMU has won nine of its last 12 games SU
• WMU has played four of its last five games UNDER the total
• WMU has covered one of its last five road games
• WMU has played six of its last eight road games OVER the total
• MICH has covered one of its last eight games
• MICH has lost seven of its last eight games SU
• MICH has played seven of its last ten games OVER the total
• MICH has covered one of its last eight home games
• MICH has lost four of its last five home games SU

Michigan is in the middle of a scandal that only promises to get worse. Six players have come out of the woodwork to accuse coach Rich Rodriguez of conducting training sessions and "voluntary" workouts that went way beyond the time limits imposed by the NCAA, and that if they did not roll over for that policy, they were punished. Now former players, like Toney Clemens, who transferred to Colorado, are talking to reporters about what a bastard Rodriguez really was. NCAA sanctions are probably upcoming, and there is no doubt a team that is divided between those who are pro-Rich Rod and those who are anti-Rich Rod.

While this is all happening, Michigan has to deal with Western Michigan while it is looking ahead to next week’s game against Notre Dame, and they have a defense that gave up almost 29 points a game last year that has to be fixed, as well as a freshman quarterback making the start. Tate Forcier is talented, and fits Rodriguez’s spread offense better than anyone else he’s had. He enrolled early to get a start on spring drills, and was the darling of the spring game. A 70% passer in high school, Forcier is no one to be taken for granted, but he is a freshman.

His Western Michigan counterpart, Tim Hiller, may not get the attention of All-MAC quarterback Dan LeFevour, but he is outstanding nonetheless, completing 65% of his throws last year for 36 touchdowns. He appears to be ready to roll after off-season ACL surgery, and he’s got a little help. True, Jamarko Simmons, who had 102 catches last year, is gone, but Juan Nunez (57 receptions) is til around, and there is some depth in the backfield, with Brandon West (1026 yards and a good outlet receiver as well) is joined by Aaron Winchester and Jamie Simpson, and four of five offensive linemen are back, so Hiller will get some balance.

The Broncos have some problems. They’ve got only three starters back on defense, and a brand-new secondary. If you’ve got to break them in, however, you want to do it against a rookie QB. Michigan may go into action with its leading rusher, Brandon Minor, out with an ankle injury (he is listed as questionable). WMU can trade points, at least for a while. On the technical side, the Wolverines have covered just one of their last eight at home, and none of their last five against Mid-American Conference teams. With questions about whether the Maize and Blue is completely focused here, let’s take the points with Western Michigan, the 13-point underdog in the BetOnline NCAA college football betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY:  WESTERN MICHIGAN +13 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)