TCU at San Diego State – Horned Frogs are a Pleasant Surprise

BetOnline NCAA Basketball Sports Betting Odds: SAN DIEGO STATE -12, Total 126

Here are some of the NCAA basketball sports betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* TCU has covered five of its last seven games

* TCU has won six of its last eight games SU

* TCU has played four of its last five games UNDER the total

* TCU has covered four of its last six road games

* TCU has lost 19 of its last 25 road games SU

* TCU has played four of its last six road games UNDER the total

* SDSU has won six of its last eight games SU

* SDSU has played four of its last five games OVER the total

* SDSU has won its last five home games SU

Also…

* TCU has covered four of the last five meetings

* SDSU has won five of the last six meetings SU

* The last three meetings have gone UNDER the total

* SDSU has had the shooting edge in four of the last six meetings

* TCU has made more three-pointers in three of the last four meetings

After a 14-16 season in which it lost almost all of its key personnel, there was not much hope for Texas Christian as it begun play under new coach Jim Christian. But Christian (who is not named after the school, nor is the school named after him) has proven to be most industrious in his first year at the helm. What has been particularly impressive is that two of the newcomers Christian has brought aboard – Lithuanian import Edvinas Ruzgas and Zvono Buljan of Croatia – have provided valuable outside shooting, as well as a little inside play too.

Buljan, who is actually the team’s center, is not a shot-blocker but he has pulled down 7.4 rebounds a game and shot 42% from three-point range. Ruzgas is a 36% shooter from beyond the arc, and makes 2.2 three-pointers per game. These guys are strong complements for Kevin Langford, TCU’s best holdover from last year, who has scored 14.4 ppg on 50% shooting.

TCU is not the deepest team in the world, and that is something that is bothering Christian. But he’s put together a feisty team which has fought hard in wins over Colorado, Texas Tech and Air Force away from home. San Diego State’s Lorenzo Wade has had his off-court legal troubles, and Kyle Spain was benched a few days ago after yelling at one of the assistant coaches. In other words, even though San Diego State has gotten some valuable bench contribution from Frenchman Mehdi Cheriet (26 points over last two games), this is a squad that often lacks discipline.

We like the attitude the Frogs have under Christian this year, and it is clear that TCU is seeking some kind of post-season action (NIT or perhaps CBI). The big people can take the Aztec defense outside, and San Diego State’s problems at the free throw line (under 69%) are something that can bite them when laying big points. TCU has more than enough to keep it within this impost. We’re grabbing points with the Horned Frogs, the 12-point underdog in the BetOnline NCAA college basketball betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY: TCU +12 ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

(Charles Jay makes his share of shots from downtown as a contributor to the BetOnline Locker Room)