Suns vs Lakers – Big Defensive Change in Game 3 Could Affect Outcome of Game 4

So, I guess Alvin Gentry is smarter than I am. I didn’t believe he could do anything that would lead to a Suns victory in Game 3 but he did. The Phoenix Suns made a key, albeit unexpected, change in Game 3 that led to a startling 124 to 112 win. The change is so key that it might lead to Phoenix actually being a very profitable bet to win Game 4 as a 1 ½ point underdog in the NBA sportsbook.

What was the change? The zone defense. Suns’ coach Alvin Gentry employed the zone defense for most of the game and…wow! It actually worked. The zone defense worked. Will it work in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals?

It might, but before getting into that, let’s check out some specifics regarding the game as well as a few NBA betting trends.

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Phoenix Suns

Where: U.S. Airways Center, Phoenix, AZ

When: May 23rd, 2010 at 8:30 pm EST

TV: TNT

NBA Betting Spread

Los Angeles Lakers -1 ½ -110

Phoenix Suns +1 ½ -110

Now for some trends:

• The Los Angeles Lakers are 5 and 1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• The Los Angeles Lakers are 5 and 2 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these two teams.
• The Phoenix Suns are 5 and 1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight-up victory.
• The Phoenix Suns are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games at home versus a team with a winning record at home.

Has Gentry found the key to beating the Los Angeles Lakers? He might have. The stats from Game 3 are telling.

The zone didn’t force the Lakers to play badly, L.A. shot 48.3% from the field (out shooting the Suns who were 46.3%) it forced them to play “un-smart”. Yes, I just made that word up. It sounds better than stupidly and I don’t believe I should ever use the word stupidly in regards to the Lakers. They weren’t stupid in Game 3. They just weren’t smart.

How “un-smart” were the Lakers? They shot 32 three-pointers because the zone gave up the 3-point shot. They only made 9 of those. That’s 28.1%. The zone also helped the Suns bridge the gap in the rebounding department. The Suns were only out-rebounded by one, 40 to 41, in Game 3. Finally, the zone forced the Lakers into 17 turnovers. 5 of those turnovers were committed by Kobe Bryant.

Kobe, by the way, scored 36 points and dished 11 assists. He had a good game, but the Suns still won.

Now, can the zone help the Suns to a victory on Tuesday night in Game 4? Yes, it can, but the Suns will need to change one thing, Channing Frye must hit his 3-point shots. The big man has missed his last 17 3-point attempts. The Suns were actually 5 out of 20 for 25% from behind the arc on Tuesday night.

Phil Jackson and Kobe Bryant will find a way to cut down on their turnovers in Game 4. The Suns are going to have to counter that move by hitting their 3-pointers. If they do that, they should have success in Game 4.

I believe they will which is why they’re my basketball betting pick to win Game 4 on Tuesday night.

NBA Basketball Betting Pick: Phoenix Suns +1 ½