Still Viable Cincinnati a Close to 8-Point Fave in the Sportsbook vs. South Florida

The still viable Cincinnati Bearcats are a close to 8-point favorite in the sportsbook to take down the South Florida Bulls on Friday night, Oct. 22nd.

The Bearcats are on a 2 game winning streak and are outscoring their opponents by an average of 9 points. Cincinnati faces another 3 and 3 Big East team in the South Florida Bulls on Friday night. South Florida, like Cincinnati, has actually remained important in the Big East although, like the Bearcats, they went through major changes during the off-season.

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Will the Bearcats prove to be too tough as big favorites in the sportsbook? Or will the Bulls prove the sportsbook odds makers wrong?

South Florida Bulls vs. Cincinnati Bearcats

Where: Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio

When: Oct. 22nd, 2010 at 8:00 pm EST

TV: ESPN2, ESPN3.com

NCAAF Betting Lines

South Florida Bulls +7 ½ -110

Cincinnati Bearcats -7 ½ -110

The football betting trends favor the Cincinnati Bearcats versus the spread in this game.

• The Cincinnati Bearcats are 5 and 0 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
• The South Florida Bulls are 0 and 6 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these two teams.
• The South Florida Bulls are 1 and 4 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
• The South Florida Bulls are 1 and 4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.

Cincinnati has defied expectations by beating Louisville 35 to 27 as 2 ½ point favorites and losing to then #8 Oklahoma by only 2 points as 14-point underdogs. The Bearcats are better at home against the spread in the sportsbook going 2 and 1 ATS so far this season.

The Bearcats average close to 180 yards per game on the ground and close to 244 yards through the air. Obviously, not a lot has changed since ballyhooed coach Brian Kelly left after last season. Cincy is still a throw first team. They still put up 30 points a game and they still allow teams to score against them.

South Florida hasn’t been nearly as impressive in 2010 as Cincinnati even though the teams share the same record. The 3 teams that the Bulls have beaten this season, Stony Brook, Western Kentucky and Florida Atlantic are all bad teams. The Bulls failed miserably versus Florida, losing 14 to 38 as 14 ½ point dogs, Syracuse 9 to 13 as 8 ½ point favorites and West Virginia 6 to 20 as 10-point underdogs.

But even though South Florida has looked less than stellar this season, their defense has played much better than Cincinnati’s defense. South Florida is 0 and 6 against the sportsbook wagering spread in their last 6 games versus Cincinnati. As crazy as this sounds, I’m actually going to go against that overwhelming trend in this game.

I appreciate how Cincinnati has come to life recently with a victory over Louisville, but the Bearcats have prevented only two teams from scoring less than 27 points against them, Indiana State in a 40 to 7 victory and Miami Ohio in a 45 to 3 victory. Fresno State scored 28, North Carolina State 30, Oklahoma 31 and Louisville 27.

Now, the Bearcats face a team with a decent defense in the South Florida Bulls. The Bulls allow 166 passing yards per game. If they can keep Cincinnati under control in the air, then they should be able to keep this game within the number in the sportsbook.

NCAAF Betting Pick: South Florida Bulls +7 ½

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