Starting a New Streak – Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Indians

April 30, 2009 by admin
Filed under: MLB Baseball Betting 

Game-day:  4/29/2009
First-pitch:  7:05 pm est.

The red hot Boston Red Sox continue their march through the A.L. with the final game of a three game series against the Cleveland Indians on Wednesday night.  Boston did lose to the Indians 9 to 8 in last night’s game, but before that the Red Sox had swept their hated rivals, the New York Yankees.  Boston sends pitcher Jon Lester to the mound.  Lester has gone 1 and 2 so far this season for a less than spectacular ERA of 4.88.  His WHIP is 1.50 which isn’t very good.

The Indians counter Lester with pitcher Fausto Carmona.  At one time, Carmona was considered a serious up and comer but lately things haven’t been going well for him.  His ERA is an atrocious 7.36 and his WHIP of 1.73 is one of the reasons he is 1 and 3 on the season.  His WHIP means that Carmona is averaging close to 2 base runners per inning.  That’s not good.

Here is the BetUS betting line for this game.

Boston Red Sox
Jon Lester – L                       -1 ½ +130        -130     O 9 ½ Ev        O/U 4 ½ 125/-105

Cleveland Indians
Fausto Carmona – R                        +1 ½ -150        +110    U 9 ½ -120      O/U 4 -125/-105

Here are a few online wagering trends for this game.

  • The Boston Red Sox are 11 and 1 in their last 12 games overall.
  • The Boston Red Sox are 1 and 5 in Jon Lester’s last 6 starts on the road.
  • The Cleveland Indians are 4 and 1 in Fausto Carmona’s last 5 starts at home as an underdog.
  • The Cleveland Indians are 1 and 4 in Fausto Carmona’s last 5 starts overall.

Carmona is still suffering the affects of an injury.  That could account for why his WHIP is so high.  In any case, he has little chance against a super hot Boston Red Sox team.

Lester will give up a few runs in this but Carmona is going to give up more.  Betting Boston is a smart thing to do at -130.  It’s also the safe thing to do, but I see an opportunity to make above even money on this game and I’m going to take it.

The chances of the Indians beating the Red Sox in this are almost nil.  The chances of the Indians getting close to the Red Sox aren’t that good either.  I just see Boston dominating.

I’m going to bet Jon Lester and the Boston Red Sox at -1 ½ +130.

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