Sportsbook Odds – Purdue Has to Rally For a Bowl Game

Sportsbook followers know that this is the time of year when some of the middle-of-the-road programs have to work very hard to secure themselves a place in the post-season, and Purdue is one of those teams that has to rally now to be bowl-eligible. On Saturday the Boilermakers will play host to the Wisconsin Badgers in Big Ten football action that is set to get underway at Noon ET at Ross-Ade Stadium (natural turf) in West Lafayette, IN. In the college football odds that are posted in the sportsbook, Wisconsin is priced as a 20-point favorite, with the total posted at 51 points.

Wisconsin Badgers (7-1 SU, 2-5 ATS) at Purdue Boilermakers (4-4 SU, 2-5 ATS)
Live at Ross-Ade Stadium
West Lafayette, IN
Saturday, November 6 –  Noon ET
TV:   Big Ten Network

Sportsbook Odds:
Wisconsin -20
Purdue +20
Odds  51

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Here are some of the trends as they might impact our sportsbook selection on this game:

• Wisconsin has won nine of its last ten games SU
• Wisconsin has covered seven of its last 21 road games
• Wisconsin has won four of its last five road games SU
• Wisconsin has played six of its last seven road games OVER the total
• Purdue has covered two of its last six games
• Purdue has won five of its last seven home games SU

Key stats for Wisconsin — The Badgers rank 13th in the country in rushing offense, as they average over 221 yards a game. Spearheading that effort is John Clay, who has tallied 111 yards a contest. Wisconsin has allowed just six sacks on the season, and only ten teams have protected their quarterback better. Scott Tolzien is 18th in the nation in passing efficiency. He has completed almost 72% of his throws, and although he has tossed only eight TD passes, but has also thrown only four interceptions. Wisconsin ranks 25th in the nation in total defense, allowing 317 yards a game.

Key stats for Purdue — Senior defensive lineman Ryan Kerrigan leads the nation in tackles for loss, and the Boilermakers as a team are seventh in the nation in that category. They are also seventh in sacks, with 24 on the season. Purdue is near the bottom in a number of categories as well, including kickoff returns (119th), punt returns (111th), passing offense (115th), total offense (104th) and scoring (106th, at 18 points a game). Rob Henry is a 50% passer, but he has had a hand injury that kept him out of the QB role with Illinois and forced Sean Robinson (7 for 20) into action, with Henry actually playing running back.

Here are some of the head-to-head trends that may influence our sportsbook selection on this game:

• Wisconsin has won and covered four of the last five meetings
• Four of the last five meetings have gone UNDER the total

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Sportsbook followers know that Purdue’s offensive situation is in a bit of flux, and now it looks like the plan may include having Sean Robinson playing quarterback and being the "passer" when taking snaps, while Rob Henry will run more, sometimes while taking direct snaps as well. You’ve got to feel for these guys, but they are disorganized and crippled right now. There are running backs and wide receivers out as well, and the Boilermakers have been outscored 93-10 the last couple of weeks, with only 323 total yards gained.

What is the chance that they will "get well" against Wisconsin, especially as the Badgers, who have beaten Iowa and Ohio State the last couple of games, have had extra time to rest and get ready, AND have pummeled Purdue to the tune of  61-3 over the last two years? Purdue has had a hard-working defensive line, allowing 3.6 yards a carry, but their defense is going to wear down from spending so much time on the field. We don’t think we’re out of school laying 20 points with Wisconsin in the sportsbook odds for Saturday.

JAY’S PLAY:  WISCONSIN -20 **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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