Sports Betting Tips – Ex-Hurricane Coach Back with Tar Heels

Our sports betting tips for ACC action on Saturday involve a homecoming of sorts (although we’re stretching it) where ex-Hurricane coach Butch Davis returns to Miami with his North Carolina Tar Heels. Amid all the controversy and the continuing investigation, the Heels have gotten hot, and they take a four-game winning streak into this game, starting at 7:30 PM ET at Sun Life Stadium (natural turf). Miami is coming off a call that was closer than usual against Duke, but they are presumably over their loss to Florida State a couple of weeks ago. The ‘Canes are a 6.5-point favorite, with the total listed at 48 points, and that is what we will base our sports betting tips on.

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North Carolina Tar Heels (4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS) at Miami Hurricanes (4-2 SU, 2-3 ATS)

Live at Sun Life Stadium

Miami Gardens, FL

Saturday, October 23 — 7:30 PM ET

TV: ESPN2

College Football Odds:

Miami -6.5

North Carolina +6.5

Total 48

Here are some of the trends as they might impact our sports betting tips on this game:

• North Carolina has won and covered its last four games
• North Carolina has played four of its last six road games OVER the total
• Miami has won 11 of its last 16 games SU
• Miami has won nine of its last 12 home games SU

Key stats for North Carolina — The Tar Heels are seventh in the nation with a turnover margin of +7. They have done a very good job defending against opposing quarterbacks, ranking 18th in pass efficiency defense. They’ve surrendered just six touchdown passes and picked off eleven passes. All told, with the suspensions they have had to deal with, North Carolina has held up pretty well with its stop unit, which ranks 33rd overall. Quarterback T,J. Yates is 25th nationally in passing efficiency, but the team has gained 125 yards a game on the ground, which ranks 88th.

Key stats for Miami — No team in the country has registered more tackles for losses than the Hurricanes, who have 9.5 per game, and that’s got to figure somehow into our sports betting tip. They are also fourth in the nation in sacks, so it is safe to say that this team gets some penetration from its front seven. The secondary isn’t so bad either, allowing just 49% completions and 150 passing yards a game, ranking second in the nation in pass efficiency defense. Jacory Harris has been plagued with inconsistency; he is 83rd in the country in passing efficiency and that is a disappointment to people who thought he might be a Heisman Trophy contender.

Here are some of the head-to-head trends that may influence our sports betting tips on this game:

• North Carolina has won four of the last six meetings SU
• Five of the last six meetings have gone OVER the total

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As we’ve said before, he may run a program that is a bit soiled, but Butch Davis has shown resiliency in weathering the storm of all the suspensions that left his team very thin at the start of the season. Not everybody has come back to action,. but some important players have, and you can see where this team has dispatched four straight opponents, including ACC rival Clemson.

Jacory Harris loves to take shots downfield in offensive coordinator Mark Whipple’s game plan, but it’s gotten a little tougher to complete those connections, and he’s had a rough time developing consistency over the last three games, 49 for 117 (42%). Sports betting tipsters also realize that North Carolina’s safety combo of Deunta Williams and De’Norris Searcy is back, and they’ll make life more difficult on those deeper routes. T.J. Yates may not be as potentially explosive, but he hasn’t done anything to beat the Heels (just one INT so far). By contrast, Harris (nine picks) is much more combustible.

There is no doubt that this game, where he faces former assistant Randy Shannon on the opposite sideline, gets extra concentration from Davis. He’s won and covered the last three meetings, and we expect that Miami won’t be able to do much to pull away, if they’re ahead at all. Our NCAAF betting tip for Saturday, and a strong recommendation at that, is to take the points with North Carolina in the college football odds.

JAY’S PLAY: NORTH CAROLINA +6.5 ****

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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