Sports Betting – Paterno Hoping for Win # 401

At this time of the year, Joe Paterno of the Penn State Nittany Lions is usually thinking about his possibilities for going to the Rose Bowl, but on Saturday the best he can probably think about is pulling a big upset for win #401.

His team takes the field as a big underdog to the seventh-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes in Big Ten action that certainly means more for OSU’s chances to get to the BCS. Game time is 3:30 PM ET at Ohio Stadium (artificial turf) in Columbus, better known as the "Big Horseshoe."

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Ohio State, the host team, is the 18-point favorite in the sports betting odds, with the total posted at 49 points.

Penn State Nittany Lions (6-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) at Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS)

Live at Ohio Stadium

Columbus, O

Saturday, November 13 — 3:30 PM ET

TV: ABC

Football Sports Betting Odds:

Ohio State -18

Penn State +18

Total 49

Here are some of the trends as they might impact our sports betting advice on this game:

• Penn State has won 14 of its last 18 games SU
• Penn State has played four of its last five games OVER the total
• Penn State has won five of its last seven road games SU
• Ohio State has won 14 of its last 15 games SU
• Ohio State has played seven of its last nine games OVER the total
• Ohio State has won its last ten home games SU
• Ohio State has played seven of its last eight home games OVER the total

Key stats for Penn State — Unusually for the Nittany Lions, they rank near the middle of the pack in many key categories. They are just 68th in the nation in rushing offense, as Evan Royster (734 yards) has produced at a lower level than expected. Quarterback Rob Bolden has thrown only five touchdown passes in 188 attempts. Penn State is only 82nd in the country in scoring, and 68th in total offense. They are 45th in total defense, but have allowed just 20 points a game, which places them 28th nationally, and that may figure prominently into our sports betting equation.

Key stats for Ohio State — The Buckeyes are third in the country in total defense, as they have yielded only 234 yards a game. And they right at the top in turnover margin, with a +13 ratio. OSU has averaged 42 points a game, and that comes on the strength of 212 rushing yards per contest. They have allowed only four TD passes all year, and the secondary has snagged 15 interceptions. Only a handful of team shave more than that. Terrelle Pryor ranks fifth in the nation in passing efficiency, with over 67% completions, 20 TD’s and nearly nine yards an attempt.

Here are some of the head-to-head football trends that may influence our sports betting advice on this game:

• Ohio State has won six of the last eight meetings SU
• Five of the last six meetings have gone UNDER the total
• Ohio State has won and covered six of the last seven meetings as the home team

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Penn State showed last week that it had some resilience in it, coming back form a 21-0 deficit to score five unanswered touchdowns against Northwestern and give Joe Paterno his 400th career win (which should come with an asterisk, considering all the pansy non-conference opponents he’s played). of course, there’s a different kind of challenge coming this week, from an Ohio State team that not only has covered eleven of its last 13 home games but also has had an extra week to get ready AND can still get to the Rose Bowl.

Sports bettors know that there seems to be a little controversy as to whether Penn State should use Rob Bolden or Matt McGloin (7 TD’s, one INT) as its starting quarterback. McGloin may be the steadier hand right now, but against the swarming Ohio State defense, I’m not sure it matters much who is at the controls. The games between these teams have been dominated by defense of late. And Ohio State has had the much more dominant defense. The last time Penn State cracked 300 yards against Ohio State was 2001. Paterno is more than a little clueless compared to Jim Tressel when it comes to game-planning. We don’t doubt that the Lions could fight hard for Paterno here, though, which for us translates to a play on the "under" in the sports betting odds for Saturday.

JAY’S PLAY: UNDER 49 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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