Southpaw Ace’s Take the Hill – Mets at Giants

New York Mets at San Francisco Giants
Saturday, May 16

Southpaws will take the mound on Saturday, as Johan Santana of the Mets (4-2, 0.78 ERA) opposes Randy Johnson (3-3, 5.89 ERA) of the Giants, who will be going after his 299th career win.

Here are some of the MLB betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
(Numbers are good through Thursday’s games – check Friday’s results)

• NY has won nine of its last 11 games
• NY has won four of its last five road games
• SF has won 15 of its last 23 games
• SF has won nine of its last 13 home games

In the HEAD-TO-HEAD sports betting trends:

• NY has won the last six meetings
• Five of the last seven meetings have gone OVER the total
• NY has won five of the last six meetings as the road team
• Six of the last eight meetings in San Francisco have gone OVER the total

You know, only one of the two teams will be wearing "Giants" across their chest, but both of these pitchers are indeed Giants of the game, with seven Cy Young Awards between them. Randy Johnson is headed to the Hall of Fame (unless he falls victim to a steroid scandal, of course) and will be going after is 299th career victory in this game. With a 113-53 career record (.681 winning percentage) and two Cy Youngs under his belt. 30-year-old Johan Santana may yet find his way to Cooperstown as well, especially if he continues to pitch as he has this season. He currently leads the National League with an 0.78 ERA, and has struck out 11.7 batters per nine innings, on track for his best figure ever in that category.

The Giants have a pretty solid record at home (12-6). In fact, their 67% winning rate at AT&T Park is the third best in the National League. Yet they have averaged four runs per game this year, which is 14th in the 16-team NL. The Mets average about one run per game more, but at time their lack of defense has given away games.

Johnson has not fared well against the Mets over the last three seasons, during which time he has faced them three times, allowing 19 earned runs in 18 innings. He has been dazzling at times this season, going seven innings twice without permitting an earned run. In one of those games, he held the Arizona Diamondbacks to just one hit. Of course, he has also slipped in some starts, like his "rematch" with the D-Backs, when he walked seven batters in 3-1/3 innings before exiting, or his one start against the hated L.A. Dodgers, when he gave up seven runs in 3-2/3 frames. Johnson has allowed 11 runs in his last 10-2/3 innings of work, although in his last outing he struck out nine Nationals in five innings without walking anyone.

In seven starts this season, Santana has gone without giving up a run in four of them. However, his team’s record with him on the mound is only 4-3, which is astounding. Well, not so astounding when you consider that the Mets have scored only 15 runs (2.14 per game) in those starts. They just sort of stand by and watch.

All but one of Santana’s outings have gone under the total, and as we expect the number will be somewhere between 7.5 and 8.5, that’s the direction we would recommend going in the BetOnline Sportsbook.

JAY’S PLAY:  UNDER