Something to Prove – San Francisco at Santa Clara

BetOnline NCAA Basketball Betting Odds: SANTA CLARA -8.5

Here are some of the NCAA basketball sports betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* SF has lost seven of its last eight games SU

* SF is 0-6 ATS in its last six games

* SF has played four of its last six games OVER the total

* SF has lost its last five road games SU

* SF has lost its last four road games ATS

* SF has played four of its last five road games OVER the total

* SC has lost its last six games SU

* SC is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games

* SC has played three of its last four games UNDER the total

* SC has played seven of its last ten games OVER the total

Also….

* SC has won the last six meetings SU

* SC has covered five of the last six meetings

* SC has won four of the last five meetings SU as the home team

* SC has had the shooting edge in each of the last four meetings

* SC has had the rebounding edge in five of the last six meetings

* SC has made more three-pointers in four of the last five meetings

No team has ever beaten Santa Clara in conference play so thoroughly as Gonzaga did last Thursday in a 95-53 game in which the Broncos were able to hit only 36% of their shots. But Santa Clara shouldn’t feel too badly, because Gonzaga also laid an 85-51 beating on San Francisco on Saturday in which the Dons were 32% accurate.

Neither of these teams is having a lot of success scoring points lately; Santa Clara has averaged 54 points over its last five games, while San Francisco has tallied 53.8 ppg over the last four. But at least Santa Clara was able to create some close calls with other members of the WCC elite, including the Gaels of Saint Mary’s, who barely got by in a 63-62 win on January 9, and San Diego, which won by a 55-50 margin two days later. Both teams have shot well below their season numbers in the last couple of weeks, but Santa Clara is the team in this matchup that is more likely to create the easy baskets, with 6’10" center John Bryant (17.1 ppg, 12.6 rpg), who’s had 45 caroms in his last three ballgames and shoots 58% for the season.

Freshman Kevin Foster is kind of a Jekyll-and-Hyde act, as he was held to just 5-for-18 shooting against San Diego and Gonzaga, but you can’t discount a guy who had 31 points against Saint Mary’s and 21 against Arizona. he may be the X Factor, although we respect the ability of someone like San Fran’s Manny Quezada, who can shoot 40% from beyond the three-point arc.

San Francisco hasn’t gotten within nine points of any Division I opponent since December 22. Santa Clara has lost the close games, that’s for sure, and may not have an abundance of artillery that is sometimes necessary to lay a large number. This number is reasonable under the circumstances, however, and we doubt that Bryant is going to be slowed here; last season he shot 62% in three meetings with the Dons, with 40 rebounds. USF is about as small this year as they were a year ago.

We’ll lay the points with Santa Clara, the 6.5-point favorite in the BetOnline NCAA basketball betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY: SANTA CLARA -8.5 ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

(Charles Jay makes his share of shots from downtown as a contributor to the BetOnline Locker Room)