SoCal Racing Returns to the Fair With a Price Horse in Race 11

The Del Mar meet is over.  Hey, it was fun while it lasted, but I, like so many of my fellow horseplayers, am happy that SoCal racing is back to conventional dirt.

I’m hoping that the return to dirt will help me hit a nice win, place and exacta with what should be a price horse in Race 11 on Thursday.  Don’t expect to bet on graded races at Fairplex, but that’s okay, because often times the biggest payouts occur in the cheapest stakes races.

At Fairplex, it’s all about early position.  The track is pretty much a bullring meaning that jockeys have to get good position early.  It’s usually also very fast. So, if you get hung out to dry or have too much work to do on the backstretch, you’re done for.  At least, that’s the usual pattern for races at Fairplex.   

Fairplex Park - Thursday

Where:  Fairplex – Race 11
When:  September 9th, 2010 at 9:00 pm EST
TV:  TVG

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Beverly J. Lewis Stakes

Purse $50,000. For Filles Three-Year-Olds.

6 ½ furlongs over dirt

pp.3 – Candy’s Pleasure – - 7/2 fair betting odds

I believe that Candy’s Pleasure going to be the price horse in this race because trainer Bob Bafffert has two in here.  Candy’s Pleasure goes first time off the claim for trainer Marcelo Polanco.  Polanco isn’t exactly a beast with his 1st time claimers, heck, he’s 0 for 3 in 2010, but that’s good.  It means that Candy’s Pleasure will keep her odds.  What’s also good is that Polanco claimed her for $8,000 up at Golden Gate.  She’s the perfect Fairplex price horse, coming off of a cheap maiden victory and going against much tougher.  She’s also the fastest horse in this race and should be incredibly tough to beat returning to dirt.

pp.4-Folk Dancer – - 7/2 fair betting odds

Folk Dancer has the speed to stick with Candy’s Pleasure, has won 4 out of 8 lifetime races, and is obviously a much classier animal.  All of the other horseplayers out there are going to see what I see was well. That’s why I seriously doubt I’ll get 7/2 on Folk Dancer to win on Thursday.  Jockey Paul Atkinson has a tough assignment. If he goes with Candy’s Pleasure, he might get burned up on the front end.  If he doesn’t, he might end up never catching the daughter of Candy Ride.  What to do?  Use Folk Dancer in the exotics. 

pp.7 – Subsidized – - 7/2 fair betting odds

There’s no way that Subsidized comes close to going off at those 7/2 fair betting odds.  Horseplayers will be lucky to get 3/2 on this daughter of Ghostzapper that is one of two Baffert charges in this race.  Subsidized could explode on dirt, she’s never run over the stuff before, or not like it.  It just depends.  In any case, out of the two Bafferts she’s definitely the one to consider betting since she’ll be able to stick with the front-runners around the first turn while Baffert’s other horse, Seriously, figures to get caught wide.  Subsidized has also won 2 out of 3 lifetime races with the other race being a second place finish.

Horse Wagering Strategy

Candy’s Pleasure should go off at close to double-digit odds in this.  That definitely makes her the price horse.  I’m going to bet on her to win and place at between 7/2 to 5/1 and win, place and show at 6/1 or higher.

I’m also going to key her in an exacta over Subsidized, Folk Dancer, 2-True Religion, 5-Come Home Lady, and 6-Feeling Fancy.  I will reverse the exacta for less.

I will bet a trifecta with Candy’s Pleasure, Folk Dancer with Subsidized, Folk Dancer, Candy’s Pleasure, with Candy’s Pleasure, Folk Dancer, Subsidized, True Religion, Come Home Lady, and Feeling Fancy.

Good luck!

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Sources:  brisnet.com, equibase.com