Saturday Night College Football – Mississippi vs. Vanderbilt

Mississippi Rebels (2-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) at Vanderbilt Commodores (3-1 SU, 2-1 ATS)

Saturday, October 3: 7:00 p.m.

BetOnline.com Football Betting Odds:
Wake Forest -2 ½, Total Points 48

Here are some of the NCAAF betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• Mississippi : 8-2 ATS in last 10 road games
• Mississippi: 4-1 SU in their last 5 road games
• Vanderbilt: 2-4 SU in their last 6 home games
• Vanderbilt: 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games against Mississippi
• Vanderbilt: 4-9 SU in their last 13 games against Mississippi

Just a few weeks ago the Mississippi Rebels had dreams of playing for a National Championship. Now they are holding on for dear life in the always tough SEC.

After finishing last year 9-4 including a Cotton Bowl win, expectations were high in Oxford, MS for the first time in years. The team was returning a seasoned quarterback in Jevan Snead and an explosive defense. However, just three games into the season they were exposed, when they went on the road a week ago and ultimately fell to the South Carolina Gamecocks.

In the game, Snead struggled all night long, completing only 33 percent of his passes for 107 yards. The lone bright spot offensively for the Rebels was senior running back Dexter McCluster who rushed for 85 yards.

Defensively, Ole Miss picked up right where they left off in previous games, holding South Carolina to just one touchdown on the evening. The Rebels currently have college football’s 10th ranked scoring defense, holding opponents to a paltry 12 points per game.

As for Vanderbilt Commodores, the team that made its first bowl game in 20 years in 2008, continues to fire on all cylinders. They are 3-1 this season, and already have beaten Mississippi State in conference. While Vanderbilt’s offense is still a work in progress (averaging just 23 points per game), it is their defense that is one of college football’s best. They are currently giving up just a little over 100 yards passing per contest, good for second in the sport right now.

If Ole’ Miss wants to overcome last week’s defeat and get their first SEC win, the key will be whether Jevan Snead can move the ball through the air. We know McCluster can get yards on the ground and as a receiver, but against South Carolina, the Rebels really didn’t have any other options offensively.

Brandon Bolden, who had rushed for over 100 yards just a week before, was held to just 32 yards on 10 carries against South Carolina. He, along with fellow running back Cordera Eason will have to have a better performance in this one.

For Vanderbilt, the key is just the opposite, using long, time consuming drives to eat up clock. Ole Miss has a great defensive front seven, so getting yards on the ground will prove difficult. The question will be whether quarterback Larry Smith will have time to throw and complete enough passes to keep the Ole’ Miss front seven honest. Will he have a performance similar to the 263 yards he put up a week ago against Rice, or the 124 two weeks before against Mississippi State? Smith’s production should prove to be a key to this game.

As much hype as Ole’ Miss received this offseason, they’ve done very little to justify it. Losing Saturday, would all but wash out a season that seems like it just began with so much hope.

Expect the Rebels to come out and play well enough offensively to get the win. However, the way they looked just 10 days ago against South Carolina, it’s hard to imagine them winning by double-digits like the experts expect.

Aaron’s Pick: Vanderbilt +10