Saturday Baseball – Cubs Send Lilly to the Mound to Stop the Brewers

The Chicago Cubs send pitcher Ted Lilly to the mound to take on the Milwaukee Brewers on Saturday night. It will be Ted Lilly’s first start in 2010 and he’s likely to be the favorite in the MLB sportsbook. His record in 2009, 12 and 9 with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP might be what the Cubs need in order to stop the high-scoring Milwaukee Brewers.

The Brew Crew will counter the returning Lilly with pitcher Doug Davis. Davis, who started for the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2009, has been atrocious in his 3 starts in 2010. Although the Brew Crew won 2 of the 3 games where Davis has started his record is 0 and 1 for an 11.25 ERA and a 2.50 WHIP. Luckily for Davis, the Brewers have been on fire lately racking up runs with ease.

I expect that Lilly, even though he’s coming off of a shoulder injury, will be the slight favorite in this game.

Expected MLB Odds

Chicago Cubs
Ted Lilly – L -1 ½ +165 -120 O 8 ½ -110

Milwaukee Brewers
Doug Davis – L +1 ½ -180 Ev U 8 ½ -110

The trends point to the Brewers and Davis winning this game.

The Chicago Cubs are 1 and 6 in Ted Lilly’s last 7 starts on the road.

The Chicago Cubs are 5 and 1 in Ted Lilly’s last 6 Saturday starts.

The Milwaukee Brewers are 7 and 0 in their last 7 home games versus a team with a winning road percentage of less than .400.

The Milwaukee Brewers are 6 and 1 in Doug Davis’s last 7 starts at home.

There’s no telling how effective Lilly will be coming off of that shoulder surgery but Davis has been so bad in his last 3 starts that I can’t see the baseball odds makers setting a betting line where Davis is the favorite.

His ERA is amazingly awful and his WHIP is even worse. With that being written, it might not matter.

The Brewers are averaging 6.47 runs per game. That’s 2nd in MLB. Their batting average as a team is .288. Milwaukee already has 20 homeruns on the season.

The Cubs are coming off of a series against the New York Mets where they were outscored only 12 to 11 but now face a team that is built to put up runs and outscore their opponents. As bad as Davis has been for the Brew Crew, Milwaukee has won 2 out of the last 3 games in which he’s started.

I see them winning another one on Saturday. Lilly may be healthy but it’s his first game of the year. He faces a team that could light him up like a Christmas tree.

I see the Brewers giving Davis enough run support in this game to make it a winning one. The Brew Crew should win this game. I’ve got so much confidence that I’ll go ahead and bet them anywhere from the underdog to the favorite’s position.

MLB Free Picks: Milwaukee Brewers from -120 to above