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Santana is a LOCK – Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets

May 7, 2009

Santana, Mets, Look To Tame Incendiary Phils, Struggling Chan Ho Park

The Philadelphia Phillies (14-10 SU, 10-14 RL, 14-8-2 O/U) and the New York Mets (12-13 SU, 9-16 RL, 10-12-3 O/U) will each be looking to extend winning streaks in the BetOnline Sportsbook when they square off at Citi Field tonight at 7 PM ET in a battle of division rivals.

The Phillies come into tonight’s contest riding a three-game winning streak after beating the St. Louis Cardinals 10-7 on Tuesday night and cash in for BetOnline MLB betting enthusiasts everywhere as +120 road underdogs.

Jayson Werth had a three-run shot and four runs batted in to lead the Phillies as the game played well over the 8.5-run O/U total.

The Mets have won two straight including Tuesday night’s 4-3 win over the New York Mets.

Carlos Delgado went 2-for-5 with two RBI to help New York cash in as +110 road underdogs while the final score played under the 10-run O/U total.

Tonight, Philadelphia will hand the ball to veteran right-hander Chan Ho Park (0-1, 9.00 ERA) while the Mets counter with ace left-hander Johan Santana (3-1, 1.10 ERA).

Santana was the NL pitcher of the month for April but has seen his Mets teammate score a minuscule 11 runs total in the two-time Cy Young Award winner’s five starts this season – the fewest for any member of their rotation.

Santana limited the Florida Marlins to just two runs on five hits with seven strikeouts in seven innings and left with a one-run lead on Wednesday but saw the Mets bullpen blow the lead in a 4-3 loss.

Park was walloped in his last start, allowing seven runs on eight hits with six walks in 4.2 innings of a 7-4 loss to the Mets on Friday. Park hasn’t won a game since making a relief appearance on July 1 for the Dodgers. He’s 0-3 with a 6.02 ERA in 36 games, including six starts, since then.

Here is a look at tonight’s key betting trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and MLB Free Pick.

  • The Phillies are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road underdog.
  • The Phillies are 7-0 in their last 7 games as an underdog.
  • The Mets are 11-1 in Santana’s last 12 starts as a favorite of -201 or greater.
  • The Mets are 8-1 in Santana’s last 9 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
  • The Over is 7-1-1 in Phillies last 9 road games.
  • The Under is 6-0 in Santana’s last 6 starts overall.
  • The Over is 4-1 in Santana’s last 5 starts vs. Phillies.
  • The Under is 11-5-1 in the last 17 meetings in New York.

MLB Odds:

  • Philadelphia Phillies +1½ Ev
  • Chan Ho Park –R +225
  • New York Mets -1½ -120
  • Johan Santana –L -265
  • Over 9 -110
  • Under 9 -110

Analysis: I won’t waste anyone’s time with a long-winded prediction on this contest, as the New York Mets are the easy pick to win and cover the Run Line despite their offensive troubles when Johan Santana takes the mound.

New York will definitely be able to score their fair share of runs off Chan Ho Park.

MLB Free Picks: New York Mets -1½ Runs/Under 9 Total Runs

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