Road Dogs – Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets

Pittsburgh Pirates (12-16) at New York Mets (14-13)

BetOnline MLB betting odds: Mets -170, Pirates +150, Total 9.5

Right-hander Jeff Karstens (1-1, 5.85 ERA) gets the call for the Pirates, while southpaw Jonathan Niese makes his first start of the season for the Mets.

Here are some of the MLB Baseball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* PITT has lost nine of its last ten games

* PITT has lost five of its last six road games

* NY has won five of its last six games

* NY has won seven of its last 11 home games

* NY has played four of its last six home games UNDER the total

In the HEAD-TO-HEAD MLB betting trends:

* NY has won three of the last four meetings

* Three of the last four meetings have gone UNDER the total

* Seven of the last ten meetings have gone OVER the total

* NY has won six of the last nine meetings as the home team

* The last seven meetings in New York have gone OVER the total

The Pirates started the season with a record of 11-7, and at one point had tossed three shutouts in four games. The pitching staff was, statistically speaking, the best in the league and even now the Pirates have the fourth-best team ERA in all of major league baseball. They have just stopped scoring runs. Pittsburgh has averaged just three runs a game over the last seven, and they have lost six of those games. In fact, they have lost nine of their last ten, and have slipped out of contention in the National League Central, 6.5 games behind the Cardinals.

The Mets have won five of six, including a quick two-game sweep over the Phillies. They are a half-game behind Philadelphia in the NL East. Last night they got to Jamie Moyer for seven runs, and Michael Pelfrey once again was the beneficiary of strong offensive support in picking up his fourth win without a loss. David Wright was 3-for-3 with a home run.

Jonathan Niese comes in to make his first start of the season for the Mets. Niese had a brief stint with the big club last September, getting shelled by Milwaukee in his first start, then coming back to pitch eight scoreless innings against Atlanta. He was generally regarded as the team’s best pitching prospect, and was given a chance to win the fifth spot in the rotation in spring training, but didn’t get it and wound up at Triple-A Buffalo. He didn’t do too well there either, posting an 8.44 ERA, but the Mets need starters, and with Oliver Perez now on the DL and Ken Takahashi more comfortable as a reliever, Niese got the call.

Jeff Karstens has had three weak outings for Pittsburgh this season and one very strong one, against Florida on April 21, when he held the Marlins to one runs and three hits through six innings. He has struck out nine and walked 13, so he’s not going to dominate anyone.

The Mets are playing poor fundamental baseball and are awful defensively, but they have been producing enough on offense (with a gem every five days from Johan Santana) to win some ballgames. It’s tough for us to back a team that has lost nine of ten, as Pittsburgh has, but Niese can’t even get anybody out in the minors. We’re going with the Pirates, the +150 underdog in the BetOnline National League baseball betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY: PITTSBURGH (+150) *

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)