Red Sox in the Nations Capital – Boston at Washington

BetOnline MLB betting odds: Red Sox -135, Nationals +115, Total 9

Right-hander Brad Penny (6-2, 4.94 ERA) takes the mound for the Red Sox, while southpaw John Lannan (4-5, 3.38 ERA) is the starter for the Nationals.

Here are some of the MLB Baseball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* BOS has won nine of its last 12 games
* BOS has played four of its last five games UNDER the total
* BOS has won six of its last seven road games
* BOS has played eight of its last 12 road games UNDER the total
* WASH has won four of its last five games
* WASH has lost 17 of its last 24 games
* WASH has played 15 of its last 17 games UNDER the total
* WASH has lost 16 of its last 23 home games
* WASH has played ten of its last 11 home games UNDER the total

In the HEAD-TO-HEAD sports betting trends:

* BOS has won eight of the last nine meetings
* Five of the last six meetings have gone OVER the total
* WASH has won four of the last six meetings as the home team
* Five of the last six meetings in Washington have gone OVER the total

The Red Sox are in good form right now, winning two out of three in three consecutive series and sweeping the Yankees in the one before that. They last played on Sunday, registering a 6-5 win over Atlanta, with David Ortiz hitting a two-run homer. Boston is four games out in front of the Yankees in the American League East. Washington lost 9-4 to Toronto on Sunday, but had won four in a row prior to that, and won two of three against both the Jays and Yankees, in effect helping Boston open things up a little more. The Nats are 16 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East, and they are twelve games behind the fourth-place Atlanta Braves. Before this little hot streak, Washington had won 16 of 62 games, which projected to just 42 wins for the season, which puts them in the territory of the worst teams of all-time.

The Red Sox last played against the Nationals in 2006, but this is the franchise’s first visit to the nation’s capital since 1971.

Brad Penny last pitched against the Nationals in August of 2007, giving up six runs in five innings in a 10-9 win for his team at the time, the Los Angeles Dodgers. Penny has made 20 lifetime starts against the Nationals/Expos, compiling a 2.54 ERA. He’s got a 4.94 ERA, but that number has been getting gradually lower, and one of the reasons for it is that he has not allowed an earned run in his last two starts (over 11 innings). He’s really only had one bad start in his last six games. The opposition has hit .296 against him, which is only eight points lower than last year, when he had a 6.27 ERA.

John Lannan has been really tough in his last three starts. First he pitched a complete game against the Mets, allowing no earned runs (one total). Then he surrendered one earned run in six innings against Cincinnati and then posted a great effort against the Yankees at the Stadium six days ago, allowing just four hits and two runs before he was taken out with one out in the ninth. This is a bona fide starter, and he better be, because he’s the only non-rookie in the rotation.

Lannan’s last six starts have gone under the total, and I think this is the way to go. We’ll move under the nine-run total as it is posted in the BetOnline American League MLB lines.

JAY’S PLAY: UNDER 9 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)