Red Sox and Tigers Round Two – Beckett and Galarraga on the Hill

BetOnline MLB betting odds: Red Sox -155, Tigers +135, Total 9.5

Right-handers go at it, as Josh Beckett (5-2, 4.60 ERA) of the Red Sox goes up against Armando Galarraga of the Tigers (3-5, 5.50 ERA).

Here are some of the MLB Baseball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* BOS has played six of its last seven games UNDER the total
* BOS has played six of its last seven road games UNDER the total
* DET has won 11 of its last 17 games
* DET has played 11 of its last 14 games UNER the total
* DET has won eight of its last 11 home games
* DET has played its last seven home games UNDER the total

In the HEAD-TO-HEAD baseball betting trends:

* BOS has won five of the last six meetings
* Five of the last eight meetings have gone UNDER the total
* Three of the last four meetings in Detroit have gone UNDER the total

The Red Sox went into Tuesday night’s game as an underdog to Rick Porcello and the Tigers but came out and beat Detroit by a 5-1 score. The Sox got a good five innings out of Daisuke Matsuzaka, while the offence was provided by Jason Bay who hit a two-run homer. The Bo Sox stayed within a game of the New York Yankees, who lead the AL East. The Tigers are 3.5 games ahead of both the White Sox and Twins.

After Josh Beckett got off to a good start with a two-hit effort over seven innings against the defending champion Tampa Bay Rays, he experienced some rough going. In recent outings, however, he has really started to look like the same pitcher who once won the World Series MVP and later became the ace of the Red Sox staff. Beckett, in his last two starts in particular, has been very difficult to hit, allowing only one earned run and eight hits over 15 innings. He stymied Minnesota last Thursday, going a full seven innings, during which time the Twins managed only three base hits in a 3-1 Boston victory. This is a guy clearly on the upswing, and his last five starts have resulted in unders.

Armando Galarraga got off quickly, with a 1.85 ERA after his first four starts. Interestingly, the Tigers scored 24 runs in his first two outings but have tallied only 28 runs in his subsequent eight starts. The low point for him was probably a disastrous outing on May 17, when he lasted only two-thirds of an inning against Oakland, and was yanked after giving up five runs. Since then he has done a little better, but hasn’t tasted victory. Last time out he gave up ten hits over a seven-inning stint against the Orioles, but the Tigers could not support him with runs, and he dropped a 5-1 decision. Seven of his last nine starts have gone under the total.

Detroit’s pitching staff and defense have done an exceptional job, as the team leads the American League in both overall runs allowed (4.3 per game) and runs allowed at home (3.9). Both of these teams have only done so-so against right-handers this season (only two games over .500 combined), and neither has been putting together a string of impressive offensive performances. Bay is doing very well, but David Ortiz is still sputtering along, with a .185 average and one homer. He’s beating back rumors that he can’t get the job done once he got off steroids.

We’re moving with the total here, and we’re going UNDER the 9.5 runs as they are posted in the BetOnline American League baseball betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY: UNDER 9.5 (-125) **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)