Rays at Red Sox – Tampa’s Swingin the Big Stick

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox 7:10 ET

Things are starting to heat up in the sports betting world, and MLB bettors will have another chance to sink their teeth into a fantastic AL East betting showdown on Friday night when the Tampa Bay Rays (14-16, -$362) hook up with the Boston Red Sox (18-11, +$415) at Fenway Park. The Rays are flying high after a two-game mini-sweep of the Yankees in the Bronx on Wednesday and Thursday. They’re on a season-high three-game winning streak courtesy of some late inning heroics. The Sox have won three out of four themselves, and have gone a scorching 16-5 in their L/21 games overall. This will be the eighth game between these teams this season. Tampa Bay holds a 5-2 edge in the season series.

It’s unusual for the Sox to ever be Fenway Park underdogs, but that’s where they sit tonight, as the Rays are -110 favorites, while BetOnline customers can find a ‘total’ of 10 over -105 right now.

“Big Game” James Shields will take the bump for the Rays on Friday night. Tampa Bay may only be 1-2 in his L/3 starts, but don’t blame the righty for his team’s failures. Shields has only allowed six runs in those three starts, but has only gotten 2.7 runs of support per game to show for his efforts. He’s had one solid start and one questionable start against the BoSox this season, but in his last game at the Trop last week, Shields held Boston to just two runs in 7 1.3rd total innings of work. Unlike most of the Rays staff, Shields is eating innings. He’s completed at least seven frames four of his six starts. Tampa Bay bettors may be out $22 this season in his outings, but if he continues to throw like this, eventually the run support will come, and he’ll return to 2008’s form where he earned $985 for his baseball bettors.

RHP Brad Penny has had an interesting first season in Beantown. The squad is 3-2 (+$101) in his five starts this season, but his numbers leave a lot to be desired. His ERA is over a touchdown (7.61) and his WHIP is a lofty 1.82. He’s not striking enough batters out to really help his own cause (5.32 K/9), he’s walking too many batters (2.6 per outing), and he’s been prone to giving up the long ball (five dingers allowed in five starts). That last stat is critical, particularly against a lineup that already has 39 homers this season, the 4th best mark in the majors. In his last outing against the Rays, Penny allowed three runs in six frames, while striking out a season-high eight batters. It was his best start of the season, but the Sox still lost 5-3.

Tampa Bay is simply tearing the cover off the baseball right now. Since striking out in six of his first seven ABs, the baseball has looked like a grapefruit to 1B Carlos Pena. He’s got 13 homers already on the season, and is on a legitimate clip to threaten the home run record of Barry Bonds if he stays healthy. LF Carl Crawford is on pace to steal 100+ bases as well, and has proven that he’ll run on C Jason Varitek at every opportunity after swiping six bags in his last game against the Sox. Penny is in a bad spot in this game, and Boston won’t be able to overcome it. There’s a reason that Tampa Bay is favored tonight.

Rose’s Recommendation: 4* Tampa Bay Rays -110

(Rating Scale: 1* – 5*)