Racing Odds – Young Guns Like the SuperSpeedway

The two emerging young guns in NASCAR Sprint Cup racing, Bad Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano, like to get out there on the superspeedways and make it happen, and with restrictor plates, racing bettors know that they could be right there in contention all the way to the end. On Sunday these two will go at it after the green flag, but on Saturday they will also have a duel in qualifying, and that is the basis of our betting proposition.

For Keselowski, Talladega is the scene of his greatest success as a Sprint Cup driver, not to mention the start of a feud that landed him in a flip this year in Atlanta, via retaliation. Logano is obviously still gaining experience, but thus far he’s shown that that superspeedway is very much to his liking.

Qualifying Matchup
Aaron’s 499 – Talladega
Saturday, April 24

BRAD KESELOWSKI -125
JOEY LOGANO -105

As you probably recall, Talladega provided the first shining moment for "Bad Brad," as he won last year’s Aaron’s 499. This was the race where Keselowski and Carl Edwards got into their first big dust up; the one that led to the incident in Atlanta where Edwards caused Brad to flip. It was Keselowski’s fifth career Sprint Cup start and he was bearing down on Edwards, who tried to block him, and in doing so collided with Keselowski and sailed into the fence. The lap Keselowski won the race on was the first he had led in his brief career, and that had never happened in NASCAR. It goes without saying that it was the big moment in his career, but we can tell that he likes superspeedways somewhat; in four career starts, he’s got two finishes in the top ten. After a rough start this season, in which he failed to crack the top 20 in his first four races, he has now done it in each of his last four, and he got sort of a promotion within Penske Racing, as he will drive Kurt Busch’s #2 Miller Lite car next year (Busch will get big sponsorship from Shell in another Penske car). Obviously the kid is riding high right now, and that has been something doubly important for him because his fiery personality is perceived by many as the type that could turn off potential sponsors. This way, a lot has been taken off his shoulders. “Obviously when you have rotating sponsors every week, there’s some confusion that goes with that," he said, "not just with the fans but also with the team itself." One thing we can say for certain is that qualifying has not been Bad Brad’s strong suit; the highest he has been has been 16th, and nothing else was very close to that.

Joey Logano, as you may know, is one of our favorite drivers, and loves the position he is in, because the not-yet-20-year-old would qualify for the Chase right now if the season were to end today. Logano finished in the top ten in both starts at Talladega last season, placing third in the fall event. He has qualified outside the top 20 only once this year, and took the pole for the Food City 500. last week at Texas Motor Speedway he was unfortunate enough to have gotten into a crash late in the race and had to settle for 28th place. But there is no doubt that even though many of the veteran drivers don’t want to give him some respect, he can loom as a factor in any race he enters. Maybe part of that involves improving his starting spot tremendously; his average start is 14th this year compared to 25th last season. Based on a little more consistency and less side stuff going on right now, I would give Logano the edge in this betting proposition.

JAY’S PLAY: LOGANO (-105) ***