Rachel Alexandra Looks to Prove She Really is Back in the Lady’s Secret

The brilliant Rachel Alexandra will look to prove that she really is back when she takes on six rivals in the $400,000 Lady’s Secret Stakes at Monmouth Park this Saturday.

The Lady’s Secret is one of Monmouth Park’s biggest races of the meet.

The fact that Rachel’s entered makes it an even bigger race this Saturday.

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Here’s a quick look at the 2010 Lady’s Secret Stakes as well as an analysis regarding Rachel Alexandra’s true chances of winning.

2010 $400,000 Lady’s Secret Stakes

• When: July 24th, 2010 at 5:50 pm EST
• Where: Monmouth Park, Oceanport, NJ
• Distance: 1 1/8th miles over dirt

2010 $400,000 Lady’s Secret Stakes – Horse Betting Analysis

Although Rachel looked spectacular in her last, there were some specific things about that race that put it all in Rachel’s favor.

First, she ran over the Churchill Downs racing strip, the site of her 2009 Kentucky Oaks victory, with Calvin Borel on her back.

Borel owns Churchill Downs. Second, the Churchill Downs racetrack was playing particularly fast that day.

Third, the only other real horse in that race was Jessica Is Back who served as nothing more than a rabbit for the brilliant Rachel.

Saturday’s Lady’s Secret Stakes might be different. Although some might argue Rachel’s biggest win of her career, a victory in the Grade I Haskell Invitational over 2009 Belmont Stakes winner Summer Bird, occurred at Monmouth Park, the truth is that Rachel is by no means a Monmouth Park loving horse.

Her Haskell victory occurred over a muddy racing strip and, to be sure, she was one of the few true front-runners in the group.

In fact, Rachel hasn’t faced more than one true front-runner like herself in a very long time.

Jessica Is Back, who proved she perhaps prefers shorter distances after winning on the Calder Summit of Speed card a few weeks ago, was put in a sincerely tough position because if she didn’t go after Rachel early, or try to scoot away from Rachel, she’d have no chance of winning.

That type of scenario, where Rachel takes the lead early or tracks a single early pace setter, isn’t going to happen on Saturday. Instead, Rachel faces at least three other true front-runners in the Lady’s Secret: Stage Trick, Fabulous Babe and Yes She’s A Lady.

Stage Trick breaks from the rail and no doubt will go for the lead. Fabulous Babe has secured the lead running in 5 ½ furlong races. So, she’s going to the front. Yes She’s A Lady is a Todd Pletcher trainee that will be pressing from the outside if not battling from the outright lead herself.

With so much speed signed on, the best place for Rachel to be will be about 2 ½ to 3, possibly more, lengths off of the pace.

That’s easier said than done. Rachel has shown an affinity to pulling Borel ever since her Grade I victory in the Woodward last summer.

In fact, save for her win in the Kentucky Oaks last year, Rachel has always sat about ½ length to a length behind the other speed. How will she react if she’s 3 or 4 lengths behind horses?

Not so well is my guess. I believe that Rachel is definitely the best horse in this race, but because of the other speed signed on, my feeling is that she might be vulnerable at her expected horse betting odds of around 1 to 9.

To many things can happen in a horse race to take 1 to 9 on any animal, much less a horse like Rachel Alexandra that pulls her jockey forward, loves to mix it up early, and so obviously peaked in her 3-year-old season.

Instead of betting on Rachel, I’m going to bet on either Queen Martha or Ask The Moon. Whichever horse goes off at the higher odds is the one I’m backing.

Queen Martha goes first time on the dirt for trainer Patrick Biancone and will be ridden by the “Calvin Borel of Monmouth”, jockey Joe Bravo. Bravo will keep Queen Martha away from the front-runners early.

Ask The Moon has shown the ability to relax off of the lead if need be. Both will offer much more value than Rachel Alexandra.

Should Rachel win the Lady’s Secret on Saturday? Absolutely, she should but she’s already been beaten in 2 out of her 3 races this year. She hasn’t run anything close to as fast as she ran last year.

She hasn’t faced as much speed as she faces on Saturday in a very long time.

All of it adds up to Rachel Alexandra, the 2009 Horse of the Year, being a vulnerable 1 to 9 or so favorite to win the Lady’s Secret on Saturday.

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