Professional Horse Picks – Race Day from Around the Country

It is the next to last day of the spring meeting at Keeneland on Thursday, with Churchill Downs opening on Saturday.

Today’s card is chock full of potential longshots, and our Pick 3 play, which starts in the fourth race, has four runners at 8/1 or better in the three race sequence.

The third leg is the sixth race, a wide open first level allowance race on the turf, which drew a full field. We will go four deep in that race, with my top pick Blue Lion sitting at a generous 8/1 on the morning line for trainer Rusty Arnold, who is having an outstanding meeting.

I had a tough time coming up with a play of the day at Aqueduct. It is one of the saddest cards I have seen at the Big A in quite a while.

However, that won’t stop us from attempting to pad our bankroll:

Today’s Play of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 7 OClm $30,000N2X (3:55 et)

#3 Walkabout Winner 7/2

#4 Ocala Gator 5/1

#6 Speed Dating 3/1

#8 Ambidaxtrous 4/1

Analysis: #3 Walkabout Winner makes her first start since last November where the filly made a good late rally to defeat Alw-1 company. The effort was flattered when both the runner up and third place finisher both came back to beat state bred Alw-1 company in their next starts. She is a half to turf stakes winner Rahy’s Appeal ($471K). The Benzel barn is 3 for 9 (with a +ROI) with horses coming back off a 61-180 day layoff.

#4 Ocala Gator ships in from Maryland for the Capuano barn that does not make the trip up north very often but has with this guy because he is a NY bred. She has been prepping for her return off a five month break at Laurel for a barn that is strong off the bench, hitting at a 27% clip with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. She has done her best work on the turf, landing in the exacta in 7 of 11 trips on the green.

Wagering

WIN: #3 to win at 5/2 or better.

EX: 3,4 / 3,4,6,8

TRI: 3,4 / 3,4,6,8

Today’s Pick 3 Play from Keeneland:

Starting in Race 4: $1: 1,4 / 3,7,8 / 2,4,10,12 = $24

KEE Race 4 Md $50,000 (2:35 et)

#1 Promulgation, #4 Whenthetimeisright

#1 Promulgation drops in for a tag here for the first time for the Motion barn that is 25% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from maiden special to maiden claiming. Last out on the turf at Gulfstream Park she had to steady coming out of the gate and not a real threat in a fourth place finish. Two back she was fifth going 1 1/2 miles but note that effort came against the boys. She made two poly starts at Dundalk so she has experience to handle the fake stuff and a nice pedigree. By Street Cry out of a Vision mare that has dropped seven winners including a pair of stakes winners, top earner Dr. Brendler ($388K).

#4 Whenthetimeisright looks like she still has some upside making just her second career start here. Last out she came from far back to make a mild late run to finish fourth against $30K maiden claimers going seven furlongs. She has enough pedigree to handle the stretch out, by Devil His Due out of the stakes winner Strong Embrace ($249K) who has dropped six winners including four route winners. Worth tossing in the mix here if we see most of the 10/1 ML.

KEE Race 5 Md Sp Wt (3:05 et)

#3 China, #7 Red Oak Ridge, #8 Castaneda

#3 China is another Pletcher firster, and as we noted in the opener the barn shows a 18% win clip overall with first time starters, and if we look at his firsters here at Keeneland going back two years the trainer has hit with 8 of 24 (33%). The colt was a $110K purchase, by Tale of the Cat (17% winners with debut runners) out of a stakes placed Indian Charlie mare, her first foal to race. The colt drilled a bullet on 4/19 out of the gate.

#7 Red Oak Ridge debuts for the underrated Reed barn and with Asmussen, Ward, and Pletcher all having runners in here we might catch a decent price on this colt. He is by Sky Mesa (12% winners with debut runners) out of a Unbridled mare that has dropped one other foal to race, 2 for 17 Battle for Britain ($40K). The colt has a steady strong of works over the surface and the 10/1 ML looks generous.

KEE Race 6 Alw $54,000N1X (3:35 et)

#12 Blue Lion, #10 Rock in Bage, #2 Thabazimbi, #4 Triplequickhit

#12 Blue Lion had to steady when caught in tight quarters on the first turn, came with a five wide bid and weakened late to finish fourth last out on the poly in a race taken off the turf. Two back over good ground at Churchill this guy came up just a nose shy of winning at this condition, while nearly five clear of the rest of the field. Edgar sticks for the Arnold barn that has been sending out live runners at the meet, winning with 6 of 22 starters.

#10 Rock in Bage was the beaten chalk last out in his local debut, checking in second going a mile. He has finished well in his last two starts and figures to appreciate the extra ground here.

Price Plays From Aqueduct:

These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.

R1: #5 Masala T 10/1

R2: #5 Reward Pending 12/1

R4: #5 Sweet Temptress 15/1

R4: #7 Sister in the City 8/1

R5: #4 Hookin the Goods 15/1

R8: #9 Coaltown Legend 20/1

R8: #5 Captain Sword 12/1

R9: #2 Smarty Karakorum 30/1

Good luck padding your bankroll today!