Preakness Stakes Odds – A Look Inside The Numbers

With nearly every sport I break down and analyze for betting purposes, I almost always have some form of number crunching.

Whether it’s a complex algorithm, like what I have for NFL football betting, or simple math that coincides with my NBA picks, I almost always have some numbers backing me up.

In no other sport do people try to throw crap against the wall and hope it sticks like they do in horse race betting. That’s why I love it so much.

The first time I ever went horse race betting without my Dad was on my birthday. My girlfriend at the time surprised me and drove me out to the track and we had a blast (it’s one of the best date ideas of all time, just in case you were wondering).

Through ten races, we tried everything. We’d look at the program and try and figure out who had placed or showed recently, then go down to the paddocks. Here’s what we finally came up with as far as a system goes:

• no female jockeys
• no horses that walked sideways in the paddock
• if a horse looked like he was misbehaving, he was off the short list
• if a horse was brooding in his stable, he earned an extra “check” next to his name (this was my favorite trait of horses because it was simply based on my perception. He could’ve just as well been lazy and fatigued.)
• 20:1 was a safer bet, and 50:1 was an absolute “no-no”
• we hated the colors red and green. Hated them. We got burned on the first race by a green horse and a red horse and we never forgave the colors (we were cool with the horses about a minute later).
• number-six was the bane of our existence and we refused to bet on him no matter what

Funny thing about our “system” was that it kind of worked. We walked in there with $100, and ten races later we walked out with nearly $1000, won pretty much off of one triacta box and one exacta. We were ecstatic.

Now that I’m writing about horse betting for a living, unfortunately I can’t be so presumptuous and ridiculous with my handicapping. So I did what I always do – I turned to the numbers.

Obviously, the bet that always gets the most traction is the favorite. But in the Preakness, that shouldn’t be the case. In the last 134 runs of Preakness Stakes betting, the favorite has won only 70 times, which is 52%.

Now that sounds like a big advantage when betting on the Preakness Stakes, but keep in mind there are now 14 other horses in the race and anything from conditions to nutrition leading up to that famed Saturday, could affect how a horse shows up.

Making matters even more precarious for the favorite, since 1960 (which is considered the “modern era of horse racing”) the horse that won the Kentucky Derby went on to win the Preakness a total of 18 times. That’s just 36%.

Those horses include Smarty Jones (2004), Funny Cide (2003), Warm Emblem (2002), Charismatic (1999), Real Quiet (1998), Silver Charm (1997), Sunday Silence (1989), Aleysheba (1987), Pleasant Colony (1981), Spectacular Bid (1979), Affirmed (1978), Seattle Slew (1977), Secretariat (1973), Canonero II (1971), Majestic Prince (1969), Kauai King (1966), Northern Dancer (1964) and Carry Back (1961).

Want some more crazy stupid numbers? Fine. Horses with more than one word names have won 73 of the 134 races (54%) and horses with single word names have won 61 of the 134 races (46%). I counted horses like Baden-Baden in the single word group because of the hyphen.

In the past ten races alone, horses with two names (or more) have gone 9-1 SU at the Preakness Stakes. So basically, the more words in the name, the better. That’s bad news for outside favorites Caracortado and Dublin.

Also a bit nerve wracking for all you favorites bettors is that no owner has won the Preakness Stakes more than twice in the modern era with Stonestreet Stables (2009, 2007), The Thoroughbred Corp (2002, 2001), Bob & Beverly Lewis (1999, 1997) and Loblolly Stable (1993,1992) being the only repeat ownership teams in the past three decades.

WinStar Farm, which owns Super Saver, has never won the Preakness Stakes.

So what do the numbers tell us? You have a better chance betting against the favorite, especially if he won the Kentucky Derby. Also, your horse better have two names in it. That makes Lookin at Lucky (+300) even more attractive than usual doesn’t it?

No do you see why numbers mean jack all in horse racing? Maybe I should just go back to betting against horses in red and yellow and badmouthing whomever’s in the sixth gate, which in the Preakness would be Jackson Bend.

Either way, now you have even more reasons to be as confused about the outcome of the Preakness from a betting standpoint than when you began the article.

You’re welcome.

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