Preakness Odds – Does Derby Win Give Super Saver an Advantage?

Horse racing bettors are asking themselves whether Super Saver, who raced to a 2.5-length win at the Kentucky Derby, has any particular advantage in the Preakness because of his victory. Some question whether this may indeed be a hindrance for the horse, who will be on a schedule that he is not used to. Super Saver’s jockey, Calvin Borel, was vocal about the notion that his horse will indeed go on to win the Triple Crown. Are other people that enthusiastic? Would YOU bet on it?

Preakness Stakes
Saturday, May 15 – 6:05 PM ET
Pimlico Race Course, Baltimore

Betting Proposition
Will Super Saver win the Triple Crown?
NO -1200
YES +750

Super Saver, with Borel aboard, ran a 104 Beyer Speed Figure in the Derby, and that is the highest figure of anybody in this field. That is still no guarantee for the +225 favorite in the Preakness Stakes betting odds, because of the dynamic that is involved in the very unusual, and in many cases, grueling scheduling.

There were different horses winning the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes last year, but the same jockey won, and that was Borel, who brought Mine That Bird home in that famous come-from-behind run at Churchill Downs, then accepted the mount on Rachel Alexandra, holding off Mine That Bird at Pimlico.

What always has to be remembered is that it is a special challenge to come back and run two weeks later. It is not something that is natural for most horses, and for Super Saver, it is something he has never done. The shortest turnaround this horse has made is 20 days, and that extra week of rest makes a big difference.

We don’t need to tell you how hard it is to win the Triple Crown. It is difficult enough for the best horse in the Derby to come back in two weeks and be the best horse in the Preakness as well.

Eleven times since the last Triple Crown winner (Affirmed in 1978), the Kentucky Derby winner has also won the Preakness:

2008 – Big Brown
2004 – Smarty Jones
2003 – Funny Cide
2002 – War Emblem
1999 – Charismatic
1998 – Real Quiet
1997 – Silver Charm
1989 – Sunday Silence
1987 – Alysheba
1981 – Pleasant Colony
1979 – Spectacular Bid

There have been eleven Triple Crown winners in horse racing history:

1919 – Sir Barton
1930 – Gallant Fox
1935 – Omaha
1937 – War Admiral
1941 – Whirlaway
1943 – Count Fleet
1946 – Assault
1948 – Citation
1973 – Secretariat
1977 – Seattle Slew
1978 – Affirmed

ESPN racing writer Jay Cronley: "There’s always Triple Crown Fever after the Derby, usually lasting three or four days, or until you have replayed the Churchill race and have seen that the winner won because 16 of the other contenders got in trouble." There’s some truth to that, and it was recognized from the beginning that there was a lot of speed, and the speed horses would flame out at some point. Take, for example, Conveyance, which led the race early but registered just a 41 Beyer Rating while finishing 15th.

Only four of Super Saver’s opponents in the Derby are coming back for the Preakness – Lookin At Lucky (+350 in the betting odds) probably has a legitimate excuse, with the rail position a horrible place to be in such a big field. Paddy O’Prado (also +350), who really enjoyed his workouts in the slop at Churchill Downs, ran well but was slowed toward the end, finishing third nonetheless. Jackson Bend (+2000), the Nick Zito horse, had never done worse than second in nine career races, but was 12th in the Derby. Dublin (+1200 in Preakness betting), trained by D. Wayne Lukas, got off to a rough start, steadied, and could do no better than seventh. Lukas has made a jockey change, dropping Terry Thompson in favor of Garrett Gomez, who was aboard Lookin At Lucky two weeks ago. Thompson found himself a mount, as he’ll be riding Northern Giant on Saturday. Bob Baffert, trainer of Lookin At Lucky, may have been looking for a reason to take Gomez off his horse.

Any of those Derby "alumni" have a chance to win the Preakness, but they will have to shoulder the same burden as Super Saver – putting forth a big effort twice in a 14-day period is probably the hardest thing to do in the sport.

Post time for the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course is 6:05 PM ET, and the doors open at 8 AM ET. The whole card, and a good one, gets underway at 10:30 AM ET. Get those bets in early!

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