Preakness 135: Super Saver or a Super Long Shot?

Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver appears to be the one to beat in the 135th running of the Preakness Stakes on Saturday, and the unlucky Lookin At Lucky with his new jockey Martin Garcia will likely garner plenty of action at the betting windows.

The third choice on the morning line is Paddy O’Prado, who rallied to finish third in the Kentucky Derby and may end up the “Wise Guy” horse on Saturday.

Where does that leave the longshot players?

Over the past nine years, we have seen seven post time favorites winning the Preakness, so for most longshot players in the past decade, they were left ripping up their tickets.

The biggest price during that span was in 2006, when Bernardini paid $27.80, while post time favorite Barbaro was vanned off the track.

While the Preakness usually runs to form, it is always a good idea to look for horses that may offer more allure than playing the chalk.

There are a few horses in this year’s race that may be worth a look:

Dublin (10/1): The colt had trouble in the early going of the Kentucky Derby, having to steady when in tight quarters in the opening furlong, made a good middle move to get into the mix, was in the hunt until about midstretch before he ran out of gas. It was a much tougher trip than Super Saver had.

With a better start the colt figures to be closer to the pace here, and he may be able to turn the tables over a fast track as the Derby winner is bred top and bottom to handle an off track.

The colt gets a key jock switch here from Terry Thompson to Garrett Gomez, who will be looking to make amends after having so much trouble riding Lookin At Lucky in his recent starts.

It does not hurt to have five time Preakness winner D. Wayne Lukas calling the shots.

I love his pedigree, out of the multiple stakes winner Classy Mirage ($716K) and a half brother to stakes winner Mike’s Classic ($328K). I downgraded his chances in the Kentucky Derby based on the stamina in the pedigree, but the slightly shorter distance here may be within his scope.

Schoolyard Dreams (15/1): This colt actually beat Super Saver in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), finishing in the runner up spot while losing an incredibly tight photo for the win with Odysseus.

Super Saver was making his first start off a 3 ½ month break in that outing.

Trainer Derek Ryan shipped the colt to New York for the Wood Memorial (G1) at Aqueduct. The colt was no match for Eskendereya, who drew clear to win by nearly ten lengths.

That left the colt short in graded stakes earnings, leaving him on the sidelines for the Kentucky Derby.

There are a couple of bullet works on the morning tab and this colt has some tactical speed. While the Kentucky Derby saw a fast pace, the early pace should be moderate on Saturday, which should leave this colt in good position when they turn for home.

The colt may not be good enough to win the race, but it would be no surprise to see him land in the mix, and is worth taking a closer look if he goes off near his 15/1 morning line odds.

Jackson Bend (12/1): The colt had a lousy trip in the Kentucky Derby and appeared to not care for the off track.

The colt had an outstanding two year old campaign, winning five of six starts including four stakes at Calder in Florida.

The colt was the beaten favorite in his three year old debut in the Holy Bull Stakes (G2), beaten ¾ of a length by Winslow Homer, a talented three year old who was injured and taken off the Derby Trail.

In his next two starts, he was beaten a combined 18 lengths, running distant seconds behind Eskendereya, who would have gone off as the Kentucky Derby favorite, but an injury sidelined him, and he was recently retired.

While he was no match for Eskendereya, that colt seemed to be heads above the rest of this three year old crop.

His 12th place finish in the Kentucky Derby was the only time in his ten race career where he did not land in the exacta.

If we blame it on the trip and the slop, this colt has every reason to rebound with a much strong performance on Saturday.

Hall of fame jockey Mike Smith will ride him for just the second time, and while the 12/1 morning line looks fair, this colt may end up taking more action, and he may end up in the 8/1 to 10/1 range.

Both Caracortado (10/1) and First Dude (20/1) are going from synthetic surfaces to conventional dirt, and we have seen three year olds this spring make that transition better than in past years.

While Super Saver is going to be the favorite, and most fans will be rooting the colt home to keep his Triple Crown hopes alive, there are several viable options from a wagering standpoint to backing the likely chalk.

Just something to think about as you get your “Preak On” Saturday afternoon.

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