Pre-Race Picks from the Belmont Stakes

Belmont Stakes Day is here, with a first post 11:35am eastern time. There is a 13 race card on tap today, and plenty of opportunities to pad our bankroll.

The play of the day comes a couple of races before Calvin Borel attempts to make history in the Belmont Stakes (G1) by becoming the first jockey to sweep the Triple Crown races on more than one horse.

The $300,000 Acorn Stakes (G1) drew a field of nine three-year-old fillies, with Justwhistledixie the likely favorite.

She will be tough to beat, but we’ll try with Livin Lovin, who is returning off the sidelines for trainer Steve Klesaris.

Our Pick 3 play today starts with the fourth race, a second level allowance race. The third leg is the first of six graded stakes on the card, the $250,000 True North Handicap (G2).

Today’s Play of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 9 Acorn S. G1 (4:44 ET)
#6 Livin Lovin 15/1
#8 Justwhistledixie 8/5
#9 Four Gifts 6/1
#4 Funny Moon 8/1

Analysis: #6 Livin Lovin finds a tough spot for her first start since last November but she showed some real promise as a two year old. She won the Grade 3 Tempted in her last start at the Big A at today’s one-mile distance and she did it in style. The runner up in the race was Gemswick Park, who returned to win the Grade 3 Old Hat in her next outing. Ramon sticks on this daughter of Birdstone for the Klesaris barn that is 28% winners (with a +ROI) with horses coming back of a +180 day layoff. I like runners coming off works at Fair Hill; they usually have the screws tightened and are ready to fire.

#8 Justwhistledixie might have given Rachel Alexandra a tussle in the Kentucky Oaks last out but she had to scratch with a foot bruise. She has won five in a row and last out won the Grade 2 Bonnie Miss in her first start going nine furlongs. She broke her maiden over the main track here and looks like a very legit favorite. It is interesting McLaughlin sticks with Leparoux after Garcia rode her in 5 of her first 6 starts, with Garcia landing on the Clement runner #4 Funny Moon.

Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 8/1 or better.
EX: 6,8 / 4,6,8,9
TRI: 6,8 / 4,6,8,9 / 4,5,6,7,8,9

Today’s Pick 3 Play from Belmont Park:

Starting in Race 4: $2: 2,3 / 2,4,10 / 5,6 = $24

BEL Race 4 OClm $50,000N2X (1:10 ET)
#2 Expansion, #3 Slam Dunk

#2 Expansion looks tough here as he cuts back in distance off a pair of runner up finished. Last out he made a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot going nine furlongs over the turf here. Two back going 1 1/2 miles at Keeneland the colt came up just a nose shy of passing this condition. Three back at Gulfstream at today’s distance he was a close up fifth in a highly graded race that produced three next out winners. In addition the winner of that race as Artic Cry, who was a game second in the Grade 3 Appleton in his next outing. A nice pedigree on this guy, by Maria’s Mon out of the stakes winner La Sylphide. The colt has handed ground with some give to it and look like he will be tough to beat in this spot.

#3 Slam Dunk was a good second last out behind a loose on the lead gate to wire winner over the Tapeta surface at Presque Isle. Two back on the poly at Keeneland he battled for the early lead and weakened to finish fifth over a surface that was playing to outside stalkers and closers. Two came out of that race to win next out including Vacation, who won the Grade 3 Hanshin at Arlington Park in his next outing on 5/23. The gelding is winless in seven trips on turf with three runner up finishes. His lone turf try in the U.S. was a decent third three back at this level at Santa Anita. He looks like he fits well here with his best.

BEL Race 5 Alw $56,000N1X (1:50 ET)
#2 Rock in Bage, #4 So It Goes, #10 Sette E Mezzo

#2 Rock in Bage draws the rail here for his third start of his current for cycle and hopefully we will see a bit better price as this guy was the beaten chalk in his last two outings. He drew a bum post last out in a fourth place finish at Keeneland, beaten 4 1/2 lengths for the top spot. That race produced a pair of next out winners while the winner came back to finish third in the Grade 3 Louisville ‘Cap. Two back he ran a good second behind Plenty Coups, who in his most recent start beat Alw-2 optional claimers at Monmouth Park on 5/31. It would be nice to see most of the 5/1 ML on this guy.

#4 So It Goes was a good second last out in his first start off a eight-month layoff. The gelding had to steady in traffic heading down the backstretch and made a mild late run when fanned out five wide turning for home. Two back last fall he checked in third in a highly graded race that produced three next out winners. The gelding does not need to move forward much off his last outing to get the job done in this spot.

BEL Race 6 True North Hcp G2 (2:33 ET)
#6 Fabulous Strike, #5 Desert Key

#6 Fabulous Strike returns off a two month break after a head loss in the Grade 1 Carter ‘Cap to Kodiak Kowboy. The gelding dueled for the early lead and could not hold off the late runner over a main track that was playing to outside stalkers and closers. The cut back to six furlongs suits and he has done some of his best running over the main track here, winning 3 of 5 starts. He lost the Grade 1 Vosburgh here with a 108 Beyer by a nose and in ’07 won the race with a 114 Beyer. The gelding has been popping bullets at Penn for his return and he looks like he will be tough to beat in this spot.

#5 Desert Key figures to move forward in his second start off a seven-month break. He came up a neck shy of beating Alw-2 optional claimers last out. He put in a couple of big efforts in ’08 including a head loss in the Grade 2 Amsterdam. He figures to move forward second off the bench for the Jerkens barn and the colt has a couple of bullet works since his last start.

Price Plays From Belmont Park:
These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.

R1:#2 Night in Tunisa 12/1
R1: #5 Living Out a Dream 8/1
R2: #1 Great Emperor 10/1
R3: #6 Woodford Manhattan 15/1
R6: #4 Sixthirteen 12/1
R7: #3 Captain’s Lover 8/1
R7: #6 Modern Look 8/1
R9: #6 Livin Lovin 15/1
R9: #4 Funny Moon 8/1
R10: #2 Champs Elysees / #2b Zambezi Sun 8/1
R11: #4 Summer Bird 12/1
R11: #1 Chocolate Candy 10/1
R12: #2 Monastir 8/1
R13: #1 Wirebuster 12/1

Good luck padding your bankroll today!