Poinsettia Bowl Pick TCU vs Boise State

Two teams from non-BCS conferences who had hopes of busting through to the BCS itself will clash on Tuesday night in one of the bowl season’s best matchups, when the Horned Frogs of Texas Christian (10-2 SU, 8-3 ATS) hook up with the Boise State Broncos (12-0 SU, 8-3 ATS) in the Poinsettia Bowl, part of NCAA college football sports betting action that is scheduled to kick off at 8 PM ET at Qualcomm Stadium (natural turf) in San Diego.

BetOnline NCAA Football Betting Odds: TCU -3, Total 46

Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* TCU has covered four of its last five games

* TCU has won 13 of its last 15 games SU

* BSU has covered five of its last six games

* BSU has won its last 12 games SU

* BSU has won 35 of its last 38 games SU

* BSU has played four of its last six games OVER the total

TCU has one of the elite defenses in college football, especially against the run. The Horned Frogs are surrendering just 1.7 yards a carry, and less than FORTY-NINE yards per game. Both of those figures lead the nation. The Frogs can also bring pressure on the passer, chalking up 41 sacks, which is third only to Texas and Oklahoma. Speaking of Oklahoma, TCU held the Sooners to their lowest point total of the season, 35 points, which is indeed low when compared to what OU has been doing lately to some of its ranked opponents. After the Oklahoma game, TCU yielded just 65 points in its last seven games.

TCU quarterback Andy Dalton has been very effective coming down the stretch. He’s thrown only four interceptions all year, and other than a pair of picks against Utah, none in the last seven games. Four different rushers, including Dalton, have averaged 35 yards a game or higher.

The fierce Horned Frog pass rush is led by Jerry Hughes who leads the nation with 14 sacks, and he is going to be challenged by Boise State, which has allowed only 11 sacks all year. That’s been good for Boise State’s Kellen Moore (70%, 25 TD’s, 9 INT’s), who’s exceeded all expectations as a freshman.

Let’s not forget that Boise State has a strong defense as well, allowing just 12.25 points per game. Of course, capable offenses did manage to move the ball on the Broncos; for example, Oregon managed 32 and Nevada 34 on them. TCU may not be in that class, but with Dalton operating on an efficient level and with balance in the offense (averaging 206 yards rushing and 201 passing), the Frogs may have enough to keep pace, with the kind of job its defense does.

We respect the resourcefulness of Boise State coach Chris Petersen, who helped engineer the momentous upset of Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl a couple of years ago. But we also think TCU can find a way to neutralize the Boise State rushing game. Looking back in retrospect, as mentioned, that Oklahoma result was a positive for TCU’s defensive "rep," and remember that they also held unbeaten Utah to just 13 points (and only 275 yards) in the November 6 meeting. With only one game since then, the Horned Frogs should be relatively fresh and healthy as well. We don’t feel all that uncomfortable in laying this small number with the TCU Horned Frogs, the three-point favorite in the BetOnline NCAA college football sports betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY: TCU -3 **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

(Charles Jay of http://www.ebookies.com gives it more than the old college try as a contributor to the BetOnline Locker Room)