Picking Winners at the Track – Friday’s Pick 3

Padding Your Bankroll: Friday May 29

Friday’s Pick 3 play hinges on beating Turn Away in the middle leg. The 7/5 morning line favorite makes her first start since October, and I’ll take a stab we can beat her with either Red Hot Jazz or Manitoba Miss in the compact field of six.

If we are right, we have a few prices in the seventh and ninth races that could lead us to a generous payoff.

The play of the day is a New York bred maiden special weight race. I don’t like making state bred races the play of the day normally, but Spancill Hill looks ready to earn her diploma in her second career start for trainer Richard Dutrow.

Today’s Play of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 6 Md Sp Wt (3:40 et)

#6 Spancill Hill 3/1

#8 By the Sky 5/2

#4 Eager Emma 7/2

#3 Cap the Thunder 6/1

Analysis: #6 Spancill Hill acted up in the gate and was off poorly in her debut. She made a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot in a good effort, beaten just a half length for the top spot. Dutrow hits at a 30% clip (with a +ROI) with second timers. The filly has a decent off track pedigree, by Kite the Fuse out of an Allen’s Prospect mare that has dropped three winners including stakes winner I Can’t Refuse ($323K) who is a full brother to our top pick and who loved a wet track.

#8 By the Sky makes her first start since last November where she was fourth in her turf and route debut. She was beaten 3 3/4 lengths for the top spot by winner Smart Engagement, who was one of three to exit that race to win next out, taking a Alw-1 company race in her next start. She has a big off track pedigree and was second and fourth on the main track in her first two starts, The Tagg barn is 12% winners with horses coming back off a +180 day layoff.

Horse Wagering

WIN: #6 to win at 2/1 or better.

EX: 6,8 / 3,4,6,8

TRI: 6,8 / 3,4,6,8 / 1,2,3,4,6,8

Today’s Pick 3 Play from Belmont Park:

Starting in Race 7: $1: 4,5,9 / 1,5 / 1,2,6,8 = $24

BEL Race 7 Clm $35,000N2L (4:12 et)

#9 Ruby’s Tune, #5 Dressed to Win, #4 Mynia

#9 Ruby’s Tune is coming off a decent effort last out in a third place finish in her first go against winners. She lost the place spot in a photo. She broke her maiden two back at Gulfstream park versus $30K maiden claimers. She looks like she is heading in the right direction and the cut back to a flat mile may suit her.

#5 Dressed to Win was a game second last out at Gulfstream Park at this level, beaten just a head for the top spot. The fourth place finisher in the race was Powdered Sugar, who beat $16K non winners of two in her next outing at Calder. The blinkers go on as the mare makes her second start off the claim by the Brown barn. The trainers is 22% winners (with a +ROI) when adding the hood.

BEL Race 8 OClm $60,000N2X (4:45 et)

#5 Red Hot Jazz, #1 Manitoba Miss

#5 Red Hot Jazz drops a level after getting outrun last out against Alw-3 optional claimers. The filly tracked the early pace and was shuffled back in traffic at the 7/16′s and did not recover. Two back this guy was a game second versus Alw-3 optional claimers but that came at Penn. She did pass her first allowance condition o the inner at the Big A and Ramon takes the call for the Klesaris barn. She looks like she fits here if she runs back to her figs she posted two and three back and we should get a fair price here in this compact field.

#1 Manitoba Miss prompted the early pace and weakened to finish third last out in the Elizabeth Bay, a race washed off the turf. The runner up in that race was Carolyn’s Cat, who came back to win the G2 Vagrancy in her next outing on 5/24. She makes her third start of her current form cycle for the Weaver barn that is long overdue to find the winners circle at the meet.

BEL Race 9 Clm $25,000N3L (5:17 et)

#1 Frozen Prospect / #1a Myakka, #8 Eightyfive S, #2 My Anna Rose, #6 Zergarra

Rice has a strong entry here and the barn is well known to fare well in turf sprints on this circuit, hitting at a 23% clip over the past three years, winning 67 of these types of races. #1 Frozen Prospect flattened out late to finish fourth last out against open $16K claimers at Gulfstream Park. Her last win came at the Spa last summer against $35K non winners of two. She steps up in price but goes from open company to non winners of three here.

Her entry mate #1a Myakka came up the rail with a mild late run to finish fourth at Tampa against Alw-2 optional claimers. She makes her third start of her current form cycle and passed her first allowance condition over the turf course here.

Price Plays From Belmont Park:

These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.

R1: #4 Goodbyeandgoodluck 12/1

R2: #3 Spunky 12/1

R4: #5 Code Name 8/1

R4: #4 Rock Candy Mt. 10/1

R5: #9 Saumon Flame 12/1

R7: #4 Mynia 12/1

R9: #8 Eightyfive S 8/1

R9: #6 Zegarra 20/1

Good luck padding your bankroll today!