Picking Ponies – Race 7 at Gulfstream Park

Race-day: 3/26/2009

Race-time: 4:12 pm est.

Sometimes good horses are overbet in claiming races because of what horseplayers see in their past performances.

Optimer is going off at 2 to 1 on the morning line Race 7 at Gulfstream Park on Thursday. He might be a bet against horse in the 7th at Gulfstream on Thursday.

Let’s analyze Race 7 at Gulfstream Park on Thursday.

Gulfstream Park – Race 7

Claiming $20,000

For Four Year Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Four Races or Which Have Not Won a Race in 2009

1 1/16th miles on turf

Harioulus – - 6/1 morning line odds

This is the kind of dropper that Racebook fans should be looking for. Harioulus drops from a $44,000 allowance where he lost by 6 lengths, to this bottom level claimer, gets the rail, and has back class which the rest in this field can’t touch. But that’s not all. Harioulus also garnered a decent speed rating in his last race, good enough for this level at least, and goes from a 9% winning trainer in Raja Malek to a 33% winning trainer in Eduardo Caramori. That’s a huge step in the right direction. He’s the play in this.

Verismo – - 4/1 morning line odds

Trainer Stephen Dimauro has two in here. Out of the two, I like Verismo more because he should be close to a slow pace in this and has shown the ability to run off of a layoff. He won in August of 2007 off of a layoff and then recently in September of 2008 he won in a $16,000 claimer off of a layoff. Jermaine Bridgemohan was the jockey on him that day and will be the jockey on him in this.

Optimer – - 2/1 morning line odds

Bettors will be lucky if Optimer doesn’t go off lower than 7 to 5 in this. He’s owned by IEAH Stables, the fellas tearing it up all over the country right now, and trained by Richard Dutrow. He finished second in his last race at this level as a 90 cents on the dollar favorite and is the classiest animal in this after Harioulus. But he hasn’t won in a long time which makes him a difficult bet no matter what the numbers in the racing form say.

Wagering Strategy

I’ll bet Harioulus to win and place. I will also put Harioulus, Optimer and Verismo into an exacta and trifecta box.