Pick and Roll – Lakers Win but Don’t Cover Tonight

Lakers Look To Even Series, Improve Mediocre Postseason ATS Record

The Los Angeles Lakers (69-19 SU, 45-43 ATS, 44-43-1 O/U) will be looking to even their second-round playoff series against the Houston Rockets (58-31 SU, 44-44-1 ATS, 42-47 O/U) at one game apiece when the Western Conference rivals square off at the Staples Center tonight at 10:30 PM ET.

The Rockets took a 1-0 series lead as all-star center Yao Ming recorded a stellar double-double with 28 points and 10 rebounds to lead Houston to a 100-92 victory in Game 1 of their Western Conference semifinals series.

Houston cashed as 8.5-point road underdogs while the final score played Under the 197-point O/U total.

Ron Artest added 21 points for the Rockets and blossoming point guard Aaron Brooks added 19 points.

Kobe Bryant scored a game-high 32 points and grabbed eight boards for Los Angeles while Pau Gasol added 14 points and 13 rebounds for the Lakers.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and NBA Free Picks.

• The Rockets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.
• The Rockets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as an underdog.
• The Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
• The Lakers are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 Conference Semifinals games.
• The Under is 4-0 in Rockets last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.
• The Under is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 vs. NBA Southwest.
• The Rockets are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Los Angeles.
• The Rockets are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

NBA Odds:

• Houston Rockets +9½ -110
• Los Angeles Lakers -9½ -110
• Over 192½ -110
• Under 192½ -110

Analysis: While I like the Los Angeles Lakers to bounce back with a solid win tonight, I just don’t see them beating the defensive-minded Rockets by 10 points despite the fact they have Kobe Bryant on their roster.

Houston plays at a very slow pace and their defensive excellence tells me they will almost certainly be able to cover the high spread for the second consecutive contest.

NBA Free Picks: Rockets +9 ½ Points/Over 192½ Total Points