PGA Picks – John Deere Classic 1st Round Matchups

Tee-off:  7/9/2009

When the BetOnline online sportsbook releases matchup odds for a golf tournament, they offer the wagers as a bet for the overall tournament, which golfer will beat the other golfer after 72 holes, and they offer the wagers for the 1st round, which golfer will be ahead of the other golfer after the 1st round.

The odds in the sportsbook are usually the same.  For instance, if Kenny Perry is -135 to beat David Toms in a matchup after 72 holes, he will be a -135 favorite to beat David Toms after 18 holes on the first day.  That always isn’t the case, but often times it is.

But gamblers can’t go by the logic that if a golfer will win in 72 he should win in 18 or vice versa. 

Let’s take a look at some of the better wagers in the sportsbook when it comes to 1st Round Matchups in the John Deere Classic.

1. Kenny Perry -130 vs. Steve Stricker Ev – - In this matchup, after 72 holes, I truly believe that Stricker wins because he is on the cusp of playing lights out…after 72 holes.  Perry should be leading the John Deere after 18 and because of that, Perry is the pick to be ahead of Stricker, by two or maybe three strokes, at the end of Thursday.
   Pick:  Kenny Perry

2. Kenny Perry -135 vs. David Toms +105 – - This is one matchup bet that really doesn’t change for me whether it is 72 holes or 18 holes.  Perry is just better than Toms right now, even though Toms has finished 2nd in two out of his three last tournament starts, because Perry is back and the defending champion.  He should be ahead of David after 18 on Thursday.
   Pick:  Kenny Perry

3. Lucas Glover -105 vs. David Toms -125 – - After 72, I’m betting Glover to be ahead of Toms in this matchup, but after 18 it’s a different story.  Toms is an elegant player on Thursday who could be in second place to Kenny Perry while Glover has shown that he likes to come from behind a bit, usually making his move on Friday and Saturday before leveling out on Sunday.  Toms is the bet for 18 holes on Thursday.
   Pick:  David Toms

4. Zach Johnson Ev vs. Lucas Glover -130 – - Johnson could be spectacular at TPC Deere Run or he could flounder and not even make the cut.  Glover will, of course, but this bet is all about Thursday.  Who do I like?  I have to go with Johnson.  He’s ranked 4th in the FedEx Cup Points Standings and could be in the top five after 18 before falling apart during the weekend. Glover might need Friday to get going.
   Pick:  Zach Johnson

5. Davis Love III -125 vs. Scott Verplank -105 – - Verplank and Davis Love often times look like the same guy out there.  Not physically, but how they can be alarmingly good and then alarmingly bad.  Love III has been playing consistently well lately and that should carry over to a nice Thursday round.  Verplank could easily shoot in the low 70’s while Love III should be looking at nothing more than a 70.  I see him beating Verplank after 18 like I see him beating Verplank after 72.
   Pick:  Davis Love III

6. Brian Davis Ev vs. Daniel Chopra -130 – - Davis shot something ridiculous like 13 straight rounds of par or better earlier this year.  Chopra can be very good or very bad but then so can Brian Davis.  My gut tells me that Davis bounces back from the terrible tournaments he’s been having and breaks the 70 barrier on Thursday.  Chopra?  After shooting a 68 and 66 in his last two tournaments during the 1st round, I see a 72 to 74 which has been his usual 1st round this year. 
   Pick:  Brian Davis