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Penn State at Ohio State in a Big Ten Battle

February 24, 2009

The Penn State Nittany Lions (19-8 SU, 12-7-1 ATS, 7-12-1 O/U) have won two consecutive games in the BetOnline Sportsbook, while covering the spread for NCAA college basketball backers each time.

The Ohio State Buckeyes (17-8 SU, 12-9 ATS, 9-11 O/U) are ‘on the bubble’ having lost three straight games coming into tonight’s matchup.

The Nittany Lions beat Illinois 38-33 in one of the ugliest college games I have ever seen. 5-foot-11 sophomore point guard Taylor Battle scored a team-high 11 points to lead Penn State to victory as the Nittany Lions cashed in as 9-point road underdogs and the game played way under the 120.5-point O/U total.

The Buckeyes lost to the same Illinois team that Penn State beat, falling 70-68 as a 2.5-point home favorite on Sunday while the combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (121.5).

Sophomore guards Jon Diebler and Evan Turner each scored a team-high 17 points for the Buckeyes in the loss.

Here is a look at the key trends for each team, followed by my in-depth analysis and NCAA college basketball Free Picks:

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Penn State’s last 5 games when playing Ohio State

Penn State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Ohio State

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Penn State’s last 5 games on the road

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Penn State’s last 5 games

Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Penn State

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Ohio State’s last 5 games when playing Penn State

Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Penn State

Ohio State is 20-3 SU in its last 23 games at home

NCAAB Odds

Penn State +5½ -110

Ohio State -5½ -110

Analysis: The Nittany Lions have covered the spread in three of the last four meetings between the schools and are a respectable 2-2, both SU and ATS in their last four road contests. However, with both teams playing such inconsistent basketball recently, this is a very tough call.

In the end, I’m going to take the Nittany Lions to cover the spread in a narrow loss to their Big Ten rivals.

NCAAB Free Picks: Penn State +5½ Points

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