Pac-10 Game of the Week – #7 USC vs. #24 California

NCAA: USC Trojans vs. California Golden Bears

Game-day: 10/3/2009

Kick-off: 8:00 pm EST

In the NCAA BetOnline Power Rankings, the California Golden Bears dropped to 19 th. That’s not as far as some other power rankings have them, but I believe that they were shell shocked against Oregon and should be much better this week against USC.

The team I’ve ranked 14 th, the USC Trojans, seem to be in a little more trouble. Stafon Johnson won’t be playing for USC after suffering a serious, critical, injury in the weight room. Johnson was bench pressing when the barbell fell on his neck. He is in stable condition after 7 hours of surgery. Football wise, losing Johnson could hurt USC, but the Trojans are a tough bunch.

Here are the NCAA betting odds in the BetOnline online sportsbook for this game.

USC Trojans -5 -110
California Golden Bears +5 -110

Here are a few online wagering trends for this game.

• The USC Trojans are 14 and 6 ATS in their last 20 games versus a team with a winning record.
• The Road team is 4 and 1 against the spread in the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
• The California Golden Bears are 10 and 1 against the spread in their last 11 games at home.
• The California Golden Bears are 2 and 6 ATS in their last 8 games at home as the underdog.

At first glance, this game could go either way. California has some powerful trends in their favor and usually they do well against USC, but there are a couple of factors that could be in USC’s favor.

The loss of Johnson could impact the USC Trojans in a negative way, but more than likely it will impact them in a positive way. That doesn’t even sound right, but the truth is that USC is a very close knit group of fellas. They will rally around Stafon. That will help them.

Not only that but USC tends to play down and then up to their competition. As bad as they can be against a Washington Huskies’ squad, they can be that good against an Ohio State team. USC is still loaded talent wise and it should show on the field this Saturday.

California was an overrated bunch going into the season. They never should have been ranked in the Top 10 because the teams they looked great against, Maryland, Eastern Washington and Minnesota, just aren’t of the caliber of an Oregon or USC.

Jahvid Best is a terrific running back, but USC’s defenders should be able to handle him. I know that the trends point to a Cal victory ATS but I can’t help but believe that the Trojans step it up in a game where a lot is on the line.

The bet is on USC at -5 in the sportsbook.