Old Fashion Texas Shootout – Texas Tech at Houston

BetOnline NCAA Football Betting Odds: PICK’EM, Total 73

The Houston Cougars caught Oklahoma State coming off a big win against Georgia and turned on the offense at Stillwater a couple of weeks ago, piling up 512 yards in a 45-35 victory that has vaulted the Cougars into the Top 25 in the country.

In fact, they are rated #17 in the AP poll and #23 by the coaches. That may not last long, though that rating did not have a chance to be sullied last week because Houston was idle.

Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• TT has won 15 of its last 18 games SU
• TT has covered four of its last six road games
• TT has won five of its last seven road games SU
• TT has played four of its last five road games OVER the total
• HOU has won six of its last seven games SU
• HOU has won its last five home games SU

That upset Houston pulled on Oklahoma State certainly ensures that Mike Leach won’t have his Raider team overlooking this very competent offensive squad. Unlike Texas Tech, which had to replace some very important working parts (QB Graham Harrell, WR Michael Crabtree, for example), Houston enjoyed some continuity coming into the season, as quarterback Case Keenum (72.3% completions, 725 yards in two games) returned all his top rushers and all but one of his top receivers. What he’s got is some very serious balance in the air corps, with five different pass-catchers gaining 80 yards or more.

We really don’t want to disparage anything Texas Tech has done (or not done, as it were), because the Red Raiders did manage to hang in there for a while against a Texas team that could be the best in the Big 12.

In that game, Taylor Potts, the junior quarterback, threw for 420 yards and three touchdowns. He currently leads the nation with 1281 passing yards. of course, Texas Tech does not provide much balance with a running game, but that will be nothing unusual in this matchup.

I think you have to take Houston’s big victory with a grain of salt, but this is a team with a couple of weeks to get ready and a passer who does not get very careless with the ball (Keenum has 11 interceptions in his last 665 throws). Potts is a guy with a better arm than Harrell, who Mike Leach is very high on, and who has managed to throw for over 400 yards in each of his three starts (there must be a record in there somewhere).

Neither team brings a lot of defense to the table, and therefore, this shapes up as a good ol’ fashioned shootout between two quarterbacks who grew up in the same hometown (Abilene) but have faced each other only in an all-star game.

We’re going OVER the 73 points posted in the BetOnline NCAA college football odds.

JAY’S PLAY: OVER 73 ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)