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Nuggets at Mavericks – Can Denver Complete the Sweep?

May 11, 2009

Billups, Focused Nuggets, Look to Complete Sweep Of Nowitzki, Mavericks In Game 4

The Denver Nuggets (61-29 SU, 52-37-1 ATS, 46-44 O/U) will be looking to finish off the Dallas Mavericks (54-36 SU, 44-46 ATS, 44-46 O/U) when they square off against their Western Conference counterparts in the BetOnline Sportsbook tonight at American Airlines Center at 9:30 PM ET.

The Nuggets took a 3-0 lead in the Western Conference semifinal on Saturday as high-scoring forward Carmelo Anthony hit a three with one second remaining to give the Nuggets a 106-105 win over the Mavericks.

Denver covered the spread for BetOnline NBA sports betting backers everywhere as 3.5-point road underdogs while the final score played just Over the 209.5-point O/U total.

All-star forward Dirk Nowitzki led Dallas with 33 points and 16 rebounds.

Here is a look at tonight’s key betting trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and NBA Free Picks.

  • The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Monday games.
  • The Nuggets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
  • The Mavericks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games.
  • The Mavericks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5.
  • The Under is 7-1 in Nuggets last 8 playoff games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
  • The Over is 4-0 in Mavericks last 4 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5.
  • The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Dallas.
  • The Nuggets are 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
  • The Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Dallas.
  • The Underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

NBA Odds:

  • Denver Nuggets +2 -110
  • Dallas Mavericks -2 -110
  • Over 211 -110
  • Under 211 -110

Analysis: While I have questioned he Mavericks’ heart all season long, I have to admit they were seriously robbed in Game 3 with no foul being called on Anthony’s game-winning shot.

I like a ticked off Mavericks team to cover the spread with a narrow home win tonight before likely having their season ended by the Nuggets in Game 5.

Take Dirk and Jason Terry to lead the Mavs to a win and cover tonight.

NBA Free Picks: Mavericks -2 Points/Under 211 Total Points

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