Nothing Left to Loose – Atlanta at Toronto

Just because Toronto is playing well,  doesn’t mean that I’m necessarily taking them right off the bat. Ok, maybe it does. Atlanta may be playoff bound, and one of those dangerous dark horses, but it’s still the NBA regular season so I’m still not siding with them on the road.

Toronto has been pulling off miracles lately, in spite of the fact that it is far too late. The hilarity of the situation is that it’s screwing Toronto’s chances of netting a top lottery pick in a very questionable 2009 NBA Draft Class. If there was any time to not do well for Toronto, it would be this time. That is, of course, unless you’re betting on them.

NBA Betting Trends

• Toronto is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games
• Toronto is 6-1 SU in their last 7 games
• Toronto is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home
• Toronto is 4-8 ATS in their last 12 when playing at home against Atlanta
• Atlanta is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games
• Atlanta is 1-4 ATS on the road
• the total has gone OVER IN 7 of 9 games when Toronto hosts Atlanta

Toronto has been crushing visitors to the Air Canada Centre as of late. Chris Bosh is on an absolute rampage, scoring 24.8 points per game and netting 13.4 rebounds in the process of the last five games. That’s enough to encourage me to take him over a somewhat disappointing Al Horford, who’s statistical production has been horrific (trust me, he’s on my fantasy basketball team and it’s playoffs!).

Atlanta Hawks (43-34) vs. Toronto Raptors (30-46)
Tuesday, April 7th — Air Canada Centre, Toronto — 7:00pm EST
NBA Betting Line: Atlanta -1.5 (197.5)

So the real question is not whether Toronto will win at home, it’s whether the OVER or UNDER is the real play. The trends say that the OVER is the pick, but the TOTAL in this matchup has ranged anywhere from 183.5 – 206.5. In most cases the total goes OVER, but I’m worried about Atlanta’s ability to score on the road. And I’m increasingly concerned with Atlanta’s inability to replace Marvin Williams appropriately. So I’m going with the UNDER. Toronto has been scoring in bunches, but Atlanta has averaged in the mid-80’s for the past five games.

NBA Free Pick: Toronto +1.5 (UNDER)