Non BCS Teams in the Top 10 – Boise State and TCU are Best Bets

For the benefit of BetOnline Sportsbook customers, today we ask the question – will any teams from non-BCS conferences get into the Top 10, and beyond that, will any of them achieve enough to be invited to the BCS? We know that last year Utah proved it belonged by routing Alabama in the Sugar Bowl game, although it may have been something of an anti-climax for a Crimson Tide squad that had been #1 during the season but lost to Florida in the SEC championship game. The year before that, Hawaii did not do the WAC proud, as it was blasted by Georgia.

So who are the main contenders to bust through, and what kind of path can they expect?

BOISE STATE (+10000 to win the national title at BetOnline) — Let’s assume that coming out of the WAC, Boise State will have to go undefeated to have a shot. They have some offensive talent as always, along with great special teams, and the "Blue Carpet." Well, the schedule is relatively conducive to it – IF, and that’s a big if, they can get by Oregon in the season opener. They’ve got a shot, because Oregon is replacing four offensive line starts and brings in a new head coach. There is also a road games at Nevada on November 27. You have to have some faith in coach Chris Petersen, who has gone 35-4 at the school, and it should be noted that I have projected the Broncos for a Fiesta Bowl appearance against Oklahoma (remember the first one?). The strength of schedule issue is a big obstacle to all this; Boise won’t score many BCS points in that regard.

TCU (+10000 to win the national title at BetOnline) — It is almost a foregone conclusion that the Horned Frogs will have a formidable defense. They rush the passer and they stop the run. The problem for them that doesn’t exist as much for Boise State is that they have a tougher schedule, having to travel twice to ACC schools (Clemson is obviously the tougher of the two) and travel to Provo as well to face BYU. Another conference game has them hosting Utah. This team has a chance to be a juggernaut, and I would say that an unbeaten season should land them in the BCS. A key here may be the kind of numbers QB Andy Dalton (59%, 11 TD’s last year) can put up.

UTAH (+12500 to win the national title at BetOnline) — They carry momentum over from the 13-0 team from last season but must replace a quarterback, as Brian Johnson’s collegiate career is finally over. They do bring back seven starters on defense, so they will be competitive. The flip side is that they have to visit their top Mountain West rivals – TCU and BYU – and also take a trip to play Oregon, which may be still nationally-ranked at that time, and which will be off a game with another BCS aspirant, Boise State. This, I think, would be a tough case to make.

BYU (+15000 to win the national title at BetOnline) — There are eight starters coming back from a defense that allowed 61% completions last year, but only four starters on offense, although it deserves to be noted that one of those starters is one of the top QB’s in the country in Max Hall (3957 yards, 35 TD’s last year). Sure the Cougars will score, and they get to host both TCU and Utah. But Oklahoma may blow them out of the box right at the start, as they travel to the new Cowboys Stadium to play them in the season opener. Oh, and then there’s a game against Florida State. This will be near impossible, but if by some chance the Cougars get through it all undefeated, they couldn’t possibly be denied.

Some quick takes on other teams who don’t show up in the BetOnline national championship odds:

SOUTHERN MISS — This Conference USA team brings back NINETEEN starters, avoids UTEP in the conference schedule, and gets a chance to show what it can do on September 26 when it visits Kansas.

TROY — Our token Sun Belt representative and the class of that league, the Trojans almost beat LSU at Baton Rouge last year. They play at Florida on September 12. Maybe, just maybe….

NEVADA — The Wolf Pack has one of the best dual threat QB’s in the country in Colin Kaepernick. They have to pay a visit to South Bend on September 5, and it will be tough to get by Notre Dame, not to mention Missouri, which visits Reno. Nevada also goes onto the Blue Carpet to face Boise State in the regular season finale. At the very least, they could play a spoiler role for some others.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN — It’s hard to tell who’s going to come out of the Mid-American Conference, but CMU has the best QB in the league in Dan LeFevour, who will be getting some attention, and they get a chance to show what they can do against out-of-conference foes as they visit Arizona and Michigan State in the season’s first two games, as well as Boston College later in the year.