NFL Spread Picks – San Diego Gets Monster Line Against Oakland Raiders

During the past two weeks, San Diego Chargers has made huge statements in outscoring the Colts and Broncos by a combined score of 81-28 while clearing the NFL spreads in both matchups. We’ve been bludgeoned over the skull with talk about how marvelous this team is during the home stretch, and even I can’t ignore a record that’s gone to an absurd 19-4 SU during the home stretch since 2007.

However, you have to wonder about two things when it comes to the Chargers. First, why can’t they do this all damn season? I know they’ve had injuries but they shouldn’t have to be playing catch up in a division they’ve owned for the past decade. Are they self entitled or just lazy?

Regardless of their mindset, the other more important question is actually more pertinent to them covering the -13.0 NFL spread on this game. And it’s this: can they stop the run?

In their past two games, they’ve been so brilliants offensively that their defense has easily shifted in to a pass coverage team. Teams have had to play catch-up. They’ve averaged just 73.0 rushing yards against, a number that is largely inflated due to Arian Foster storming 140 rushing yards, but haven’t really played a team that can run the ball efficiently.

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The only way Oakland survives this matchup and covers the NFL spread is if they rely on what they do best, and that’s run the damn football.

Oakland Raiders (5-6) vs. San Diego Chargers (6-5)

Sunday, December 5th — Qualcomm Stadium — 4:05pm EST

NFL Spread and Total: San Diego -13.0 (45.0)

Darren McFadden has been absurdly limited in his past two games, compiling just 16 yards on 18 carries. In fact, before this two game slump, McFadden had accumulated well over 90.0 total yards from scrimmage in each game prior. Of course, the problem is that Oakland has been blown out of the water early in their past two contests against Pittsburgh and Miami but that is no excuse to keep the ball out of the hands of your most dangerous playmaker.

This has been a horrendous matchup for Oakland in the past. Their victory earlier this year was their first in over ten games against the Chargers. Oakland is just 1-9 SU and 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games. They’re also just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in  their past 6 games on the road.

The only hope here is that their defense gets enough stops in the first half to allow their own rushing offense to chew up the clock. Nobody has been able to expose San Diego on the ground because a) they’re either trailing by a massive margin or b) their opponents simply don’t have a decent running back that week.

Oakland has a very good running back, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they can cover this NFL spread. They also don’t have a very smart head coach. Tom Cable has abandoned the run inexplicably in his past two games, and I guarantee he won’t make that mistake again.

Also boosting the chances of the Oakland Raiders I the fact they have the best road pass defense in the league, giving up just 174.6 yards per game when travelling. They may have one of the worst rush defenses in the league with 143.8 yards allowed on the ground but that’s not the point.

This is still a lot of points for San Diego to cover and the only reason I would take them against the NFL spread in this game is because I’m can’t trust the Oakland Raiders to grind the football and Oakland has a tremendous amount of difficulty scoring in the red zone.

You’re not just relying on the offense of the Oakland Raiders, but the defense as well which was held hostage by the Miami Dolphins. I had high hopes for Oakland, but their abysmal record against the NFL spread in recent weeks, as well as their typical struggles in San Diego have me leaning away from them in this matchup.

NFL Spread Pick – San Diego -13.0 (OVER)