NFL Spread Betting – Houston Goes For Another Win Against Indy on MNF

The Houston Texans made a huge splash in NFL spread betting when they opened the season with a decisive victory over the Indianapolis Colts. Do they have the moxy to go for a second win and give themselves the inside track on the ultra competitive AFC South? Not if Peyton Manning has anything to say about it.

The curious thing about NFL spread betting in this game is that both Austin Collie and Dallas Clark will be out of action for Indianapolis, and the line hasn’t moved at all. If anything, it’s moved by about a half-point towards the Colts.

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Without his favorite target and one of his favorite receiving weapons, you’d think that the public would air on the side of caution.

It also doesn’t help to look at how well the Houston Texans have done in terms of NFL spread betting against the Colts. Thought Indianapolis is 8-2 SU in their past 10 games against Houston, the Texans own the betting line in this matchup with a 7-3 ATS run over that same set of games.

That doesn’t mean that Houston is that much of a lock to win. They may be 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Indianapolis, but they also haven’t won in Indianapolis…well…ever.

Houston Texans (4-2) vs. Indianapolis Colts (4-2)
Monday, November 1st — Lucas Oil Stadium — 8:30pm EST

NFL Spread: Indianapolis -6.0 (50)

The Texans have been without starting left tackle Duane Brown, and a lot of their hopes will rest on his shoulders since he’ll be the one in charge of stopping Dwight Freeney. Brown was suspended for four-games for illegal substance abuse. I’m sure Matt Schaub will like having him back.

While Matt Schaub is a very good quarterback, he’s no Peyton Manning. And guess which team has the worst pass defense in the league? That’s right – the Houston Texans.

If you’re dreaming of an upset, then don’t bother waking up because Houston is simply not built to win this game. If they were, they would have a win at Lucas Oil Stadium by now. But if NFL spread betting is your game, Houston deserves a look.

After their win over Indy, the Texans have gone just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games. If you’ve been reading my previews for this season, you know I’m not totally sold on the Texans.

The ATS record reflects how a team is doing compared to calculated expectations on the part of the oddsmakers, and the Texans are hitting well below the benchmark on average.

Indianapolis hasn’t been that much better in NFL spread betting – but they’re never good against the number. They’re too heavy of a public team because of Peyton Manning which means people flock to their lines. Oddsmakers and NFL lines makers adjust for things like that.

I’m digressing. Back to The Pick.

The ultimate problem I’m having with this game is three fold. First, my ratings systems tell me that Houston is not as good as the public thinks they are. Second, the Colts are ridiculously good at home.

In fact, in two home games this season they’ve plastered the Giants and Chiefs, which are both teams people expect to make the playoffs.

The third and final reason is that Peyton Manning barely trips up in NFL spread betting if it’s a prime time game (unless it’s the Super Bowl).

I think the Houston Texans have a lot to prove, but Indy has a curious knack of shutting down would-be contenders when they visit Lucas Oil Field. The number on this game reflects that appropriately, as it should.

Every fiber in my body is telling me Houston has a chance to clear the spread, rattle an upset and give the Colts another gut punch. But I can’t bet against the hard nosed fact that Peyton Manning and the Colts elevate their game when playing at home in prime time.

It happens every time and I think this is a game where Houston gets exposed as second rate in the AFC South compared to the Colts.

That kind of intangible, to me, has a bigger impact on my NFL spread betting when it comes to this Monday Night Football matchup than any other.

NFL Spread Betting Pick – Indianapolis -6.0 (UNDER)

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